.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – positive  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.15%  Currencies:  USA$  -.13%, YEN +.19%, BTC/USD +.84%,  Vix: 20.7

·         News:  USA:  Non-farm payrolls 830ET CAD: Ivey PMI 10ET

·         Stocks: LEVI -11% STZ-.1%   EPS  NVDA+1.8% Jensen positive Blackwell comments
Overview: SPY 569.4 support 565 and resistance 570 573.3 575; SPY expected move +/- 5.5, QQQ 483.4, with resistance 485 487.3  support 482.6 480 475 expected move +/- 5.8.  USA indices have been rising since the European open ahead of the non-farm payroll report. IWM is leading premarket and with speculative ETFS ARKK, XBI outperforming, indicates market is pricing in a goldilocks report which would be 160k-200k jobs. Macro set-up is neutral with US$ slightly lower and long yields slightly higher. Dockworkers strike is settled so no longer a risk.  Implied volatility is elevated into the data print which means that dips can lead to bounces as puts monetize as long as SPX remains > 5690. Above 5720, SPX will be able to run. **** NFP 254k UE rate 4.1% Average hourly earnings 0.4% vs 0.3%  Reaction: Equity bounce, yields higher, gold lower, US$ higher. I have not looked at revisions, but initial take is the USA employment situation is fine hence no reason for the Fed to make large rate cuts. This is a negative for yield sensitive assets like gold and US$ sensitive assets like foreign stocks. China stocks were outperforming before this data release and no reaction yet.**** The equity pop on the data release is normal as puts and shorts close. Need to keep an open mind that SPX can continue higher but possibility that Fed rate cuts will be less than expected may lead to a fade the pop. Geopolitical uncertainty is supporting oil and can continue over the weekend. MAG7 are led by AMZN TSLA with the weaker names outperforming


Expected moves SPY(573.3-562.3), QQQ (487.3-475.8), IWM(219-213.2), SPX (5755-5644.9)


Stocks to watch AMZN, TSLA, AMD, BABA, TLT, GLD,  Speculative SMMT, ACMR, TCOM

Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, ETHE, UNG, ARKK, USO, IBIT, XLE, IWM, XLY, XBI, SMH, QQQ, TLT

S&P500 ALB, CVS, AAL, AMZN, TSLA, VST, EBAY, UAL, SMCI, DVN, BMY

NASI PDD, AMZN, TSLA, ARM, SMCI
Other ACMR, TCOM, SMMT, EDU, JD, ALB, MNSO, BABA, RDDT, ZIM, RIVN, NVO, BMY


 

Trade Idea: AMZN

AMZN is leading MAG7 premarket. JMP upgraded AMZN to $265 and the resolution of the dock workers strike removes any supply concerns. AMZN is above 185 level which can be used as support with a call wall at 190 which is an initial target. 20ema is providing support and a key level to watch if thinking of AMZN making a run into Oct24 earnings. AMZN is extended with the premarket pop and one can look for a pullback > 185 if considering a long.