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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.15% Currencies: USA$ -.09% YEN +.5% BTC/USD -.75% Vix: 20.7

·       News: USA:  Bowman, Kashkari, Musalem FED speakers 13ET Eur: German factory orders -5.8% m/m vs -1.9%

·       Stocks: AAPL -.9%, AMZN -1.4%, NFLX -.4% Downgrade NVDA-.18% AI conference this week TSLA +.4% Robotaxi event this week
Overview: SPY 571.1 support 570 569 and resistance 572 575 576  SPY expected move +/- 3.9 QQQ 485.4  with resistance 488 490 491 support 482.9 480 expected move +/- 4.5. USA indices trading lower since European open with a bounce starting in NY premarket with IWM leading and QQQ lagging. Macro setup is negative with 10Y 4.0% which is usually negative negative for housing and bond proxies. Yen is +.5% which can be a headwind to the carry trade. SPX has been consolidating around the 5750 level with a breakout level > 5720 and breakdown < 5700. Until SPX breaks out of range, will likely continue to see rotation. There are several Fed speakers today in the afternoon with Bowman (hawk) the most important. Strong jobs numbers (questioned by many) now put major emphasis on the CPI print as it can pour ice water on the narrative of aggressive Fed rate cuts. AAPL, AMZN are moving lower premarket after downgrades; AMD higher with AI event Oct10; TSLA higher with Robotaxi event Oct10; NVDA is hosting an AI conference this week with all the usual suspects presenting and hyping their stocks. Friday there were pops in most of the names loosely connected with AI (check out AIQ holdings) watch for continuation. PFE is higher on Elliot activist involved. Oil continues to move higher as missile are flying as does Chinese stocks with Caveat that Shanghai has been closed for golden week and trading will resume Monday night so take care.

Expected moves SPY(576.9-569) QQQ (491.8-482.9) IWM(221.4-217) SPX (5790-5712)


Stocks to watch BABA, LVS, TSLA, TLT, AMZN, AAPL Speculative TIGR, HIMS, LI

Pre-800ET
Indices FXI, KWEB, USO, ETHE, IBIT, XLE, US$, SLV, UNG, XLK, QQQ, XLY, TLT, SPY, EFA, RSP, XLC, SMH, GDX

S&P500 LVS, PFE, AMZN

NASI AMZN
Other TIGR, VSTO, EH, ACMR, HIMS, LI, XK, WB, JKS, CPNG, XPEV, LVS, BABA, BIDU, PFE, TAL, FUTU, MSTR, MBLY, EQNR, OKLO, RIVN



 

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL was downgraded, currently 224.9 with premarket low 223. Straddle approach with potential long > 225 with target 230, 235 and fade < 223 with target 220. Likely short cover into open so need to give time to stabilize.