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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.05%  Currencies:  USA$  -.16% YEN +.15% BTC/USD -.09%  Vix: 21.75

·       News:  USA: NFIB 91.5 vs 92; Fed speakers Eur: German Industrial production 2.9% m/m vs 0.8% China: China state planner disappointed market with lack of aggressive stimulus announcement; China mainland exchange opened with record volume which pumped and dumped overnight

·       Stocks: PEP-.5% EPS MSFT -.06% downgrade NVDA+1.7% SMCI+4.8%  Positive chatter re: Blackwell AFRM+4.9% upgrade China & commodities pullback from overbought
Overview: SPY 569.8 support 567 565 and resistance 570 571 572.9 SPY expected move +/- 4.1 QQQ 483.8 with resistance 485 486  support 481 480 477.7 expected move +/- 4.3. Global equities are mixed with USA higher, Europe lower, Japan higher and China substantially lower. Macro setup is negative with long yields higher. China state planner
NDRC disappointed market and mainland exchange reopened and net impact was a hard drop in China equities and commodities which have had large moves on hope that China would provide bazooka stimulus and suddenly buy baskets of raw materials. USA indices are mixed with Nasi higher and IWM lower. MAG7 are higher ex-MSFT which was downgraded led by NVDA. Monday NVDA was largely supporting the S&P500 driven by 130 strike call options. Today NVDA is leading and look for them to try again with the NVDA GPU conference this week. SMCI continues to be strong on chatter of building lots of servers but IMO there is a short squeeze potential as SMCI has failed to file the 10K and is under SEC watch. TSLA is also on watch with the Robo taxi event this week. AFRM is up on an upgrade, and a potential short squeeze or a sell the pop candidate. PEP reported a revenue miss and commented on cautious consumer spending for Frito-lay and soda, interesting comment if consumer is strong. SPX5700 remains key bull/bear level.

Expected moves SPY(572.9-564.8) QQQ(486.2-477.7) IWM(219.6-215.6) SPX(5750-5669)


Stocks to watch NVDA, SMCI, AFRM, TSLA, TLT, FCX, AA Speculative FUTU, TIGR, SAVA 

Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, XLK, SMH, XLF, QQQ, SPY, XLU, GLD, XLY, KRE, ARKK, KWEB, FXI, USO, IBIT, XME, SLV, XLE, XLB, TLT

S&P500 SMCI, NVDA,  FCX, OXY

NASI SMCI, NVDA, PDD
Other SAVA, AFRM, SMCI, DJT, NVDA, CWAN, FUTU, TIGR, DQ, BILI, EH, FCX, AA, RIO, OXY



 

Trade Idea: BABA

BABA has pulled back with all China stocks with China mainland exchange re-open and the China planning group not discussing bazooka stimulus. BABA has bullish option positioning so question is whether dip is bought or continues lower. 110 is a major call level and can be used as a long trigger. 105 is a potential support level for a potential bounce and a failure of 105 would indicate the selling is continuing.