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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.03%  Currencies:  USA$  +.13% YEN -.23% BTC/USD -.41%  Vix: 21.3

·       News:  USA:  FOMC minutes 14ET; 10y bond auction 13:01ET; 6 Fed speakers JP: Machine tool orders -6.5% y/y indicating weakness in Japanese economy NZD: 500bps rate cut as expected
Stocks: HELE+12%  EPS GOOGL-.4% DOJ pending remedies NVDA+1.1% TSM+.8% AMD+1% TSM reported higher quarterly revenue; massive call flow into NVDA  China  continues to pullback, China MOF briefing Oct12 to discuss fiscal measures
Overview: SPY 572.6 support 571 570 568 and resistance 574 575 576.5  SPY expected move +/- 3.3 QQQ 488.3 with resistance 490 493  support 486 485 482 expected move +/- 3.9. Global indices are slightly lower with USA indices falling during Asian trading and bouncing with European. USA led by DJIA with IWM lagging. Macro is slightly negative with US$ higher and yields slightly higher. Poor data from Japan and NZD rate cut is boosting the US$. FOMC meeting minutes may move US$ and rates as will add color to FOMC thinking but its not a raw transcript. Given the importance of rates, the 10y bond auction may also be important. CPI Thurs is the big event for the week and with equity markets consolidating at highs. Potential for equities to breakout on lower CPI print or breakdown on a hot CPI. MAG7 continue to be dominated by NVDA which is now approaching 135 which is the call wall and can act as resistance or the next launching level. GOOGL is under pressure with DOJ pondering remedies including a breakup. Tues there was a strong bid to software stocks ex-MSFT (IGV) and worth watching for continuation. China continues to be weak and the fast money may have been directed to tech. Market is waiting for China bazooka stimulus which could come Oct 12. Today there is a large SPX iron condor which could keep SPX between 5775 and 5720. Ahead of CPI print, may see index chop and rotation between sectors with premarket NVDA and semis currently sucking up the capital.
Expected moves SPY(576.5-570) QQQ(493-485) IWM(219.6-215.6) SPX(5784-5718)


Stocks to watch NVDA, SMCI, AFRM, TSLA, TLT, FCX, AA Speculative FUTU, TIGR, SAVA 

Pre-800ET
Indices US$, MSOS, XLP, XLY, FXI, KWEB, USO, GDX, XLE, EFA, UNG, TLT, SLV, GLD

S&P500 NCLH, ALB, GNRC, RCL, CCL, NVDA, HD, BA, VST

NASI NVDA, AMD, SIRI, PDD
Other HELE, ALAB, GTLB, NCLH, ZETA, RDDT, AFRM, NVAX, ALB, GNRC, RCL, SAVA, NVDA, SQ, MNSO, NTES, FUTU, GFI, BA, RIO




 

Trade Idea: AFRM

AFRM potential bounce idea with back-to-back upgrades. This is an interest rate-sensitive name which could be under pressure if CPI is hot Thurs but otherwise can benefit. 8% short float can provide a boost. Large call position at 42.5 sets a trigger for long above. Calls at 45 set a potential target.