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 Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.34%  Currencies:  USA$  +.55% YEN -.8% BTC/USD -2.5%  Vix: 15.65

·       News:  USA:NFIB Small Business Index 93.7 vs 91.9; FOMC speakers 1015ET;, 14ET  EUR: ZEW economic sentiment 12.5 vs 20.5

·       Stocks:   SHOP+15%; SE+13.8%, CAMT+7/6%, HD+1.4%, TSN+6.4%, GRAB+6.85%, FOUR+8.6%, ONON-1.35%, PLUG-1.5%, TME-5.6%, AZN-1% EPS HON+6.4% activist
Overview: SPY 598.3 support 596.1 595 and resistance 600 601.5 SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 513.5 with support 512 510 resistance 515 517.1 expected move +/- 3.3. Global indices are weaker premarket. USA large caps are flat but IWM is down .6%. Long yields and US$ higher into Wed CPI is typically bearish for commodities which are weaker and profitless/high debt companies. The surge in bitcoin, TSLA, high short interest tech is taking a breather after days of multi-standard deviation moves. TSLA and others that have launched on the back of huge out of the money call buying are worth watching into Friday as the decay of the calls will dampen the upside. Until Fri they will still be targeting 500. CPI Wed in theory is a big event but option market is not significantly hedging which is a left tail risk into the end of the week and next week. Up to now the equity market has been driven by short covering and has not been affected by the rising yields & US$. Global markets are being impacted and displaying weakness but not the USA market. SPX is still in a very strong positive gamma state which should anchor it around the 6000 level today. Typically indices are well supported into Wed of an Opex week and volatility will then increase into Fri and the following week. With a short-term call driven bubble move, Opex is potentially a significant event to pay attention to

·       Expected moves SPY (601.5-596.1) QQQ (517.1-510.6) IWM (243.5-239.9) SPX (6028.4-5974.4)

Stocks to watch SHOP, NVDA, HON, HD, ETHE, TSLA, MU Speculative LYV

Pre-800ET
Indices USO, EWC, UUP, ETHE, KWEB, FXI, UNG, IBIT, ARKK, GDX, TLT, IWM, GLD, XME, XBI

S&P500 HON, TSN, LYV, CHRW, HD, CDNS, IFF, NVDA, LOW,  MU, SMCI, TSLA, PLTR, MPWR, ALB, INTC, SW, CCL, WDC, PYPL, ROST, ABNB, F, LVS

NASI HON, CDNS, NVDA, META, ON, AMZN, ASML, VRTX, BKR, MU, TSLA, PDD, SMCI, INTC, PYPL, ROST, SIRI



 

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP is higher on better than expected earnings. Expected move was 105 and premarket SHOP is above that level, this can lead to a squeeze to higher levels. There are call positions at 110, 115 that can act as resistance or acceleration above. One can look for long trade > 110 for a momentum trade or pullbacks > 105.  Pullbacks below 105 are warning signals. Options room trade was targeting 105 for max profit, hence take care below.