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  • Swing Trade Idea – November 14, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral  global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.16%  Currencies:  USA$  +.25% YEN -.3% BTC/USD +1.2%  Vix: 14.5

    ·       NewsUSA: PPI, UE claims 830ET  EUR: Flash GDP+.4% q/q;  Industrial production -2% m/m

    ·       Stocks:   DIS+9.7%, MUFG+4%, NTES+4.5%, JD+2.4%, NTES+4.4%, LUNR+19%, ASTS+5.5% CSCO-2.5%  EPS SMCI -10% potential delist due to no 10Q/10k filings QUBT+35% Quantum Computer contract
    Overview: SPY 597.2 support 595 592.3 and resistance 598.2 600 602   SPY expected move +/- 4.85 QQQ 511.9 with support 510 508 resistance 515 516.3 expected move +/- 4.0. USA indices are flattish post release of PPI which was 0.2% m/m as expected but above prior. UE claims 217k was below expectations. Combined with CPI print, data does not support the FED need to cut rates nor that inflation is falling. US$ is making a yearly high and long yields are continuing to rise which historically would be a negative for equities however flows are continuing to support equity markets but yields and US$ are biting commodities. MAG7 are led by TSLA and NVDA with NVDA reporting next week and likely attracting bettors. Semis, which fell hard Wed are having a dead cat bounce. Software has been outperforming Semis since July. DIS is the big mover post earnings with a beat. SMCI failure to make SEC filing deadlines is raising the potential for delisting this weekend unless given an extension. SMCI is NVDA third largest customer. DELL is gaining on the back of SMCI worries. Space names are in play today with LUNR ASTS higher post earnings. Also moving is QUBT which is a quantum computer company, look for IONQ to have a sympathy move and potentially AMSC. Premarket looks like a muted version of the Trump trade with bitcoin, TSLA, PLTR, profitless tech leading but a short term call driven bubble move, Opex is potentially a significant event to pay attention to. SPX6000 remains a major level that can attract price into Friday. 



    ·       Expected moves SPY (602-592.3) QQQ (516.3-508.2) IWM (238.1-232.1) SPX (6033-5936.8)

    Stocks to watch
    DIS, NVDA, ASML, PLTR, AAPL, MSFT Speculative QUBT, IONQ,  SMCI

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    IBIT, USO, SMH, ARKK, IWM, XLE, XBI, TLT, EFA, EWC, MSOS, UNG, GDX, GLD, SLV, FXI

    S&P500 DIS, TPR, AMAT, MU, KLAC, LRCX, CPB, PLTR, WBD, DELL, VST, HAL, UAL, NVDA, SMCI, NEM, IVZ, VTR, TSLA, WEC, SW, TRMB, IP, FTNT, CTRA, COP

    NASI ASML, AMAT, MU, KLAC, LRCX, WBD, QCOM, DDOG, CRWD, PANW, MDB, SMCI,  PDD, TSLA, FTNT, AZN, MSFT, AAPL, META, CDNS, GOOGL




    Trade Idea: DIS

    DIS popped on earnings and is above the call wall of 110 with potential to run higher with calls at 115 and 120 potential targets. Premarket high 113.9 can be used for a momentum long to 115 or alternatively look for pullback > 110 for a bounce long to the premarket high and potentially higher

     

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