Swing Trade Idea – November 14, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.16% Currencies: USA$ +.25% YEN -.3% BTC/USD +1.2% Vix: 14.5
· News: USA: PPI, UE claims 830ET EUR: Flash GDP+.4% q/q; Industrial production -2% m/m
· Stocks: DIS+9.7%,
MUFG+4%, NTES+4.5%, JD+2.4%, NTES+4.4%, LUNR+19%, ASTS+5.5% CSCO-2.5%
EPS
SMCI
-10% potential delist due to no 10Q/10k filings QUBT+35% Quantum
Computer contract
Overview: SPY 597.2 support 595 592.3 and resistance 598.2 600 602
SPY expected move +/- 4.85 QQQ 511.9 with support 510 508 resistance 515
516.3 expected move +/- 4.0. USA indices are flattish post release of PPI which
was 0.2% m/m as expected but above prior. UE claims 217k was below
expectations. Combined with CPI print, data does not support the FED need to
cut rates nor that inflation is falling. US$ is making a yearly high and long
yields are continuing to rise which historically would be a negative for equities
however flows are continuing to support equity markets but yields and US$ are
biting commodities. MAG7 are led by TSLA and NVDA with NVDA reporting next week
and likely attracting bettors. Semis, which fell hard Wed are having a dead cat
bounce. Software has been outperforming Semis since July. DIS is the big mover
post earnings with a beat. SMCI failure to make SEC filing deadlines is raising
the potential for delisting this weekend unless given an extension. SMCI is
NVDA third largest customer. DELL is gaining on the back of SMCI worries. Space
names are in play today with LUNR ASTS higher post earnings. Also moving is
QUBT which is a quantum computer company, look for IONQ to have a sympathy move
and potentially AMSC. Premarket looks like a muted version of the Trump trade
with bitcoin, TSLA, PLTR, profitless tech leading but a short term call driven
bubble move, Opex is potentially a significant event to pay attention to.
SPX6000 remains a major level that can attract price into Friday.
· Expected
moves SPY (602-592.3) QQQ (516.3-508.2) IWM (238.1-232.1) SPX (6033-5936.8)
Stocks to watch DIS, NVDA, ASML, PLTR, AAPL, MSFT Speculative
QUBT,
IONQ, SMCI
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, USO, SMH, ARKK, IWM, XLE, XBI, TLT, EFA, EWC, MSOS, UNG,
GDX, GLD, SLV, FXI
S&P500 DIS, TPR, AMAT, MU, KLAC, LRCX, CPB, PLTR, WBD, DELL, VST, HAL, UAL, NVDA, SMCI, NEM, IVZ, VTR, TSLA, WEC, SW, TRMB, IP, FTNT, CTRA, COP
NASI ASML, AMAT,
MU, KLAC, LRCX, WBD, QCOM, DDOG, CRWD, PANW, MDB, SMCI,
PDD, TSLA, FTNT, AZN, MSFT, AAPL, META, CDNS, GOOGL
Trade Idea: DIS
DIS popped on earnings and is above the call wall of 110 with potential to run higher with calls at 115 and 120 potential targets. Premarket high 113.9 can be used for a momentum long to 115 or alternatively look for pullback > 110 for a bounce long to the premarket high and potentially higher