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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.7%  Currencies: USA$  +.06% YEN -.7% BTC/USD -.7%  Vix: 16.45

·         News:  USA: Housing data, Goolsbee10ET Jpn: Core machine orders -0.7% m/m important Japan data weak CDN: $ Housing starts 8:15ET

·         Stocks:   TSLA+5.9% Trump priotitizing self driving car regulations NVDA -2.8% Blackwell concerns SMCI+13% Barrons article SMCI will file a resolution plan

Overview: SPY 586.2 support  585 582 580  and resistance 589.6 590 SPY expected move +/- 3.8  QQQ 498.2 with support 495 492.5  resistance 500 505 expected move +/- 4.0. Global indices are mixed with USA indices flat, Europe lower, China higher and Japan higher. Long yields higher premarket in theory should be negative for equities and bond proxies like staples and Utes and companies with high debt like small caps. Yen is down sharply which is positive for the carry trade which can support US equities. MAG7 are mixed with TSLA higher on a report that the Trump WH will prioritize self-driving car regulations and NVDA lower on reports (not new) that issues with Blackwell may delay/reduce revenue. SMCI is currently leading S&P500 on report that they may provide a resolution plan to not filing a 10k and having the auditor resign. Precious metals are higher which could be a reaction to Biden WH green lighting Ukraine to fire missiles into Russia or just trading action but large bounce in  Silver, Palladium, Platinum.  Opex led to pullback in companies with high call positions as well as ⅓ of the options support to the SPX.  Post Opex the indices typically have higher volatility and hedgies can move back into their faves. Stocks with heavy put exposure may be able to bounce. SPX is in negative gamma and remains cautionary while < 5900 and risk-off < 5800

·         Expected moves SPY(589.6-582) QQQ (500.6-492.5) IWM (230.2-226.8) SPX (5908-5833)

Stocks to watch TSLA, SLV, PALL, AMD, QCOM, CRWD, NVDA, NFLX, ARM, PLTR   Speculative SMCI

Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, UNG, SLV, ARKK, GLD, FXI, KWEB, USO, XBI, XLE, IGV,  MSOS, IBIT, SMH, ETHE, TLT, EFA 

S&P500 SMCI, TSLA, WBD, NEM, DELL, HPE, MRNA, AMD, CVS, HAL, EL, CE, MPWR, QCOM, CRWD, APD, ALB, NVDA, ACGL, UBER, WBA, AMGN, TPR, PSC, SO, CVX, LIN, DIS, LLY, ADI, HSY, PLTR, META

NASI SMCI, TSLA, WBD, AMD, MRNA, PDD, QCOM, CRWD, BKR, INTC, PANW, AMZN, NVDA, ARM, AMGN, NFLX, BIIB, ASML, AZN, LIN



 

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA has moved above the top of the weekly expected move on the article that the Trump WH would prioritize autonomous driving regulations. The move can cause a gamma squeeze where call options drive the stock price higher.  Straddle approach: > 340 targets are 350 and 360 with longer dated target 400. < 340 look for dips > 330 for bounces with 340 as the first target.