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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, Chin, Hong Kong, Asia – Slight Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGs, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.7%  Currencies:  USA$  +.06% YEN -.7% BTC/USD +1%  Vix: 16.5

·       News:  USA: Building permits 830ET CDN: CPI 8:30ET  EUR: CPI inline Core 2.7% y/y

·       Stocks: WMT+3.5% TCOM+4% LOW-1.4% FUTU-.9%  Earnings
Overview: SPY 586 with support at 585 and 580 and resistance at 590 and 591.3 SPY expected move +/- 3.2 QQQ 498.4 with support at 496.8 and 495 with resistance at 500 and 503.1 expected move +/- 3.1. Global indices are weaker premarket and display signs of classic risk-off with Vix , Gold, Bonds, Yen higher. Media rationale is Biden giving green light to Ukraine for USA provided missiles and intelligence to hit Russia despite Russia warnings that they consider it an act of war and will respond. MAG7 are lower ex-NVDA and financials are lower which could lead to a correlated decline should it continue into the open. SPX 5850 SPY 585 are levels which can lead to 5800 if breached due to the lack of puts below. WMT is higher on earnings beat and lifting COST TGT and can support the retail sector. SMCI found an auditor and presented a cunning plan to the SEC for filing 10k/10Q which is squeezing the shorts. GOOGL news is the DOJ will order Chrome to be spun out but this will need to be prosecuted by the next administration. Gold, silver, bitcoin, Yen, bonds, Vix, defense stocks, NVDA are the bullish assets with the current weakness. Tomorrow is Vix expiration and with ½ the Vix gamma expiring, there is potential for larger vol moves tomorrow.

·       Expected moves SPY(591.3-585) QQQ (503.1-496.9) IWM (230.5-227.3) SPX (5925-5862)

Stocks to watch WMT, COST, NVDA, LMT, INTU, TSLA, BAC, JPM   Speculative SMCI

Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, IBIT, TLT, GLD, SLV, SMH,  FXI, UNG, ETHE, FEZ, EFA, IWM, KWEB, XLF, KRE, XBI, XLY

S&P500 SMCI, WMT, ALB, NEM, CTVA, MCHP, NVDA, MRK, COST, LMT, AWK, TGT, INCY, PLTR, J, LH, CCL, SW, AMCR, PRU, INTU, ENPH, F, BAC, C

NASI SMCI, MCHP, NVDA, COST, AZN, INTU, WBD, PDD, LIN, PYPL, TSLA, INTC, AMGN, META, KHC, AMD, HON, GOOGL



 

Trade Idea: SPY

SPY is below the daily expected move (585) which can lead to larger moves lower. There is volume support at 582 and should that fail SPY 580 is the logical next level. SPX5800 is a support level while SPX < 5850. Normal for a bounce at the open after a premarket drawdown but need to watch for reaction at VWAP and 585 for rejection. Given that the move is news related, it is quite possible that positive news can lead to a strong bounce so one needs to keep one’s head on a swivel today.