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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.6%  Currencies:  USA$  +.3% YEN -.7% BTC/USD +1.7%  Vix: 16.0

·       News:  USA: Building permits 830ET CDN: CPI 8:30ET  EUR: CPI inline Core 2.7% y/y

·       Stocks: WIX+13%, KEYS+8.8%, AZEK+2.2%, DY+1%, TGT-17%, NIO-2% Earnings QDEL-5.8% secondary
Overview: SPY 591.7 support  590 587 and resistance 592 593.6 595  SPY expected move +/- 3.3  QQQ 504.8 with support 500 resistance 505 507.4 510 expected move +/- 3.9. Global indices are higher premarket with USA led by large caps. Macro is not supportive with long yields and US$ higher is not impacting premarket. TGT major earnings miss and a guidance cut with comments regarding higher supply chain costs and weaker demand for discretionary items. Retailers DLTR DG WMT lower in sympathy. WIX, KEYS are 2 earnings beats which have moved more than the expected move and can continue higher and TGT lower. MAG7 are mixed with NVDA moving higher into earnings, NFLX continuing higher and MSFT moving up. Industry groups with strength premarket are security (CRWD FTNT), Energy with nuclear spin (VST CEG) and cloud software (DDOG). Fintech, especially profitless/high short interest has been strong and LMND is higher again on an upgrade. ARK ETFS are higher as high risk tech continues to be bid post the election. Bitcoin continues to rampage higher and may be added by options available now for IBIT. MSTR continues to bubble higher despite market cap 300% higher than it’s underlying bitcoin holdings #bewary. Vix expiration at the open can raise volatility. SPX 5900 remains the key level to watch today with caution below. NVDA earnings after the close are the big show. Index IV is elevated due to NVDA earnings as NVDA will move the USA indices. The IV will drop post earnings so if NVDA doesnt miss, the IV drop will provide a lift to the USA stock market. Risk is a poor forecast from NVDA if Blackwell is delayed.

·       Expected moves SPY (593.6-587) QQQ (507.4-499.5) IWM (232.4-228.8) SPX (5950-5884)

Stocks to watch NVDA, NFLX, FTNT, KEYS, WIX, TGT Speculative MSTR, MARA, LMND

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, IBIT, KWEB, SMH, USO, FXI, XLV, XLE, QQQ, XLF, XLP, GDX, TLT, XRT

S&P500 KEYS, AMCR, VST, DELL, HUM, FTNT, UNH, CRM, NFLX, LLY, CRWD, CEG, GEV, APH, MU, NVDA, MSFT, PANW, TGT, DG, DLTR, SMCI, INCY, BBY, ALB, ROST, FIS, TJX, MPC, VLO, IP, AFL, WMT

NASI CMCSA, FTNT, AZN, NFLX, DDOG, CEG, META, CRWD, MRVL, MSFT, DLTR, SMCI, PDD, LULU

 

Trade Idea: ARKF

ARKF holds a basket of fintech companies which are newer, typically high valuation and/or high short interest. Since the election this basket has been on fire with companies like SOFI, AFRM, LMND(today), SQ outperforming. Pure momentum, high risk but can continue for as long as the bubble expands. Can be traded as a momentum long or alternatively look for a pullback to shake out the froth. These companies will only work if the economy is strong, liquidity is plentiful and animal spirits are strong.