Swing Trade Idea – November 25, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.97% Currencies: USA$ -.77% YEN +.59% BTC/USD -.37% Vix: 15.6
· News: USA: No major news
· Stocks: BBWI+15% Earnings M-4.4% accounting
issue
Overview: SPY 598.9 support 598 595 and resistance 600
SPY expected move +/- 3 QQQ 508.8 with support 508 502 500 resistance 510
513 expected move +/- 3.9. USA, European and Japanese equity markets are higher
premarket with catalyst the nomination of Scott Bessent to Treasury secretary.
He is believed to wish to cut the budget to 3% of GDP, increase GDP to 3% by
deregulation and increase US oil production by 3M barrels per day. US$
and long yields have fallen in reaction as has gold. USA indices have bounced with
USA indices above the daily expected move can lead to an extended trend higher
or rejection. Premarket USA is setup for risk-on led by IWM and speculative
names. MAG7 are led by TSLA and AMZN with NVDA positive but lagging.
Positive sectors: natgas (UNG, EQT), Power generation (VST, CEG, SMR),
Companies reporting this week (Dell, BBY, CRWD) Crypto (MSTR HOOD ETHE) Spec
tech (U PATH PLTR IONQ). The ARK etfs are a way to trade the momo trade in
profitless/high valuation/high short interest tech with ARKK (big TSLA
position) and ARKG (biotech leading). Caveat is many stocks are extended
with the premarket surge so need to be careful. Thanksgiving week tends to be
bullish and markets are positive gamma so dips will be bought and rips sold.
SPY600 will be likely hit before market opens and will be interesting to see
what the next move is.
· Expected
moves SPY(598.5-595.5) QQQ (509.7-501.9) IWM (241.2-236.4) SPX (5999.3-5939.3)
Stocks to watch TSLA, AMZN, HUM, GEV, PLTR, NEM Speculative RKLB, HOOD, SAVA
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, UNG, ARKK, TLT, KRE, XBI, IWM, IGV, XLY, EFA, RSP, XRT,
XLF, IBIT, SLV, GDX, GLD, UUP, FXI, MSOS, US$
S&P500 SMCI, EQT, HUM, PLTR, MRNA, GEV, DELL, BBY, TSLA, ALB, CVS, GS, UNH, TGT, VST, CEG, NEM, HCA, LMT, ATO, UHS, AMGN, PAYC, NVDA
ALL SRRK, BBIO,
BBWI, RKLB, HOOD, SMCI, SMR, PLTR, LUNR, U PATH, SNOW, U, AI, HIMS, MARA, SOFI,
IONQ, UPST SAVA, ZIM, SUM, TSM, XPEV, NEM, JD, GOLD, GFI
Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA has broken above the 360 call wall. Expected move for the week is 376-326. There is a large call position at 370 which becomes the next upside target should the 360 level hold. Hedge funds usually select a MAG7 to blast with calls and TSLA looks like a candidate, perhaps taking the role from NVDA. ARKK has a large position in TSLA and has alot of the type of names in favor so can serve as a surrogate to TSLA. Caveat indices and momo stocks are extended premarket and prime for a pullback on the open that will likely be bought up.