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  • Swing Trade Idea – November 25, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Slight Positive  global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.97%  Currencies:  USA$ -.77% YEN +.59% BTC/USD -.37%  Vix: 15.6

    ·       NewsUSA: No major news

    ·       Stocks:   BBWI+15% Earnings M-4.4% accounting issue
    Overview: SPY 598.9 support  598 595  and resistance 600  SPY expected move +/- 3 QQQ 508.8 with support 508 502 500  resistance 510 513 expected move +/- 3.9. USA, European and Japanese equity markets are higher premarket with catalyst the nomination of Scott Bessent to Treasury secretary. He is believed to wish to cut the budget to 3% of GDP, increase GDP to 3% by deregulation and increase US oil production by 3M barrels per day.  US$ and long yields have fallen in reaction as has gold. USA indices have bounced with USA indices above the daily expected move can lead to an extended trend higher or rejection. Premarket USA is setup for risk-on led by IWM and speculative names. MAG7 are led by TSLA and AMZN with NVDA positive but lagging.  Positive sectors: natgas (UNG, EQT), Power generation (VST, CEG, SMR), Companies reporting this week (Dell, BBY, CRWD) Crypto (MSTR HOOD ETHE) Spec tech (U PATH PLTR IONQ). The ARK etfs are a way to trade the momo trade in profitless/high valuation/high short interest tech with ARKK (big TSLA position)  and ARKG (biotech leading). Caveat is many stocks are extended with the premarket surge so need to be careful. Thanksgiving week tends to be bullish and markets are positive gamma so dips will be bought and rips sold. SPY600 will be likely hit before market opens and will be interesting to see what the next move is.


    ·       Expected moves SPY(598.5-595.5) QQQ (509.7-501.9) IWM (241.2-236.4) SPX (5999.3-5939.3)

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, AMZN, HUM, GEV, PLTR, NEM Speculative RKLB, HOOD, SAVA

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, UNG, ARKK, TLT, KRE, XBI, IWM, IGV,  XLY, EFA, RSP, XRT, XLF, IBIT, SLV, GDX, GLD, UUP, FXI, MSOS, US$

    S&P500 SMCI, EQT, HUM, PLTR, MRNA, GEV, DELL, BBY, TSLA, ALB, CVS, GS, UNH, TGT, VST, CEG, NEM, HCA, LMT, ATO, UHS, AMGN, PAYC, NVDA

    ALL SRRK, BBIO, BBWI, RKLB, HOOD, SMCI, SMR, PLTR, LUNR, U PATH, SNOW, U, AI, HIMS, MARA, SOFI, IONQ, UPST SAVA, ZIM, SUM, TSM, XPEV, NEM, JD, GOLD, GFI





    Trade Idea: TSLA

    TSLA has broken above the 360 call wall. Expected move for the week is 376-326. There is a large call position at 370 which becomes the next upside target should the 360 level hold. Hedge funds usually select a MAG7 to blast with calls and TSLA looks like a candidate, perhaps taking the role from NVDA.  ARKK has a large position in TSLA and has alot of the type of names in favor so can serve as a surrogate to TSLA. Caveat indices and momo stocks are extended premarket and prime for a pullback on the open that will likely be bought up.

     

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