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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mixed global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -2%  Currencies:  USA$  +1.8% YEN -2.1% BTC/USD -.8%  Vix: 16.2

·       News:  USA: 30y bond auction 13ET; ISM services 10ET; US election  EUR: -.6% m/m Services PMI 51.6

·       Stocks:   EXAS-21% IRBT-7.8% NVO-.7% SMCI-21%         MCHP+.2% QLYS+18.5% CVS+10%     EPS
Overview: SPY 589.3 support 585 580 and resistance 595 600 SPY expected move +/- 8.8  QQQ 500.8  with support 500 498 495  resistance 502 505 expected move +/- 8.3. Election has led to a strong continuation of the Trump trade i.e. bitcoin, financials, US$ higher and yields higher.  In addition to the Trump trade, the high short interest, small caps are outperforming with IWM leading by a large margin. Financials and cyclicals are outperforming the MAG7. TSLA +12% DJT +24% are huge winners with potential to continue to run given the amount of the move. US$ +1.8% is weighing on commodities and global equities traded in USA but Europe and Japan are higher in local currency. China is a big loser with narrative that Trump could be tougher. 10y yield +1.9% would usually be negative for long duration assets like speculative tech. The resolution of the presidential election has led to the predicted drop in IV and with the large hedges ahead of the election, the market makers are buying back short futures, which has lifted the indices.  The outperformance by financials and industrials is clear and reflects a narrative of a reduction in regulation and higher economic growth. Caveats: House and Senate are not decided and should Dems take the house, it would mitigate the presidential election; FOMC is meeting Thurs and their forecast for rates will move markets.  Today there are short calls at SPX 5900-5950 which can serve as resistance with potential for 6000 post FOMC.

Expected moves SPY (585.5-568) QQQ (500.5-483.9)) IWM (230.2-218.2) SPX (5870-5695)

Stocks to watch TSLA, DFS, NUE, CVS, INTC, BABA, SLV, KWEB, TLT, FSLR   Speculative DJT, SMCI

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, KRE, IBIT, ARKK, IWM, XLF, XME, XLI, XBI, XRT, RSP, IYT, IGV, XLY, MSOS, SLV, GDX, KWEB, TLT, USO, FXI

S&P500 DFS, TSLA, SYF, NUE, COF, HUM, CRL, CVS, WFC, CFG, STLD, MS, C, USB, FITB, KEY, HBAN, URI, SMCI, FSLR, ENPH, AES, CNC, UHS, HCA, NEE, MOH, ALB, NEM

NASI GFS, INTC, CEG, PCAR, CHTR, ON, ILMN, WBD, CMCSA, HON, PYPL, FAST, CTSH, SMCI, PDD, MRNA, DLTR, META, ASML, AZN



 

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the election. Massively extended and highly overvalued but a prime candidate for manipulation by the options market. There is a huge call position at 300 which will be the target of the manipulators. Speculators can consider long while > 280 with target 285 and above 285 target 290. Thesis invalid < 280. The option manipulators usually target a MAG7 stock and TSLA is a prime target today taking the mantle from NVDA which still needs to be watched.