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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.05%  Currencies:  USA$  -.4% YEN +.4% BTC/USD -.15%  Vix: 16.1

·       News: USA: FOMC 14ET; UE claims  830ET; China: Trade balance 679B vs 560B UK: BOE cut rates 50bps as expected

·       Stocks:  ARM -7.8%, CTVA-10.6%, GOLD-1.8%, MTCH-11.6%,   QCOM+12.2%,  GILD+1.7%, APP+28%, HUBS+2%, COHR+5.6%, LYFT+22%, ELF+10%, EPAM+9%, MCK+5.4%  EPS
Overview: SPY 593 support 590 587.3 and resistance 595 SPY expected move +/- 3.7 QQQ 507.8 with support 505 502 500 resistance 509 510 expected move +/- 3.5. USA indices flattish post the election surge and ahead of the FOMC meeting. Macro set-up is mixed with US$ pulling back but long yields continuing higher. QQQ is the leading USA index with positive earnings from QCOM, APP, COHR, HUBS aiding. China trade balance better than expected lifting China stocks which were trounced post election. FOMC meeting is the big event today with likely a quiet market ahead. FED is expected to cut 25bps today but what is important is the tone towards Dec where the market is pricing in a 66% probability of an additional 25bps cut. Long yields have been rising since the last FOMC meeting and potential that Powell may turn hawkish in order to prevent the long end from continuing to rise. IV has fallen since the election but is still elevated due to the FOMC. Often the post meeting drop in IV is positive for markets but given the recent move in the equity markets, the election over and the rise of long yields IMO raises risk that Powell can be interpreted as hawkish. SPX is positive gamma which supports markets (dips bought and rips sold) but take care below 5900 as if put buyers step up.

·      
Expected moves SPY (594.7-587.3) QQQ (509-502)) IWM (240-234) SPX (5965.8-5892.2)

Stocks to watch QCOM, AMD, NVDA, BABA, ARM, GOLD   Speculative LYFT, COHR,  MTCH, DJT

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, FXI, MSOS, GDX, SMH, XME, EFA, SLV, GLD, XBI, IBIT, UNG, USO

S&P500 EPAM, QCOM, MCK, MRNA, VST, RL, TTWO, WBD, TPR, FCX, SMCI, UBER, MTCH, CTVA, HSY, ROK, F, PANW, TDG, FE, TAP, ENPH, SW, WFC, JPM

NASI MRNA, QCOM, WBD, TTWO, PDD, SMCI, TTD, ANSS, GILD, MRVL, CEG, AVGO, MELI, ARM, DDOG, PANW, AZN



 

Trade Idea: APP

APP is in a gamma squeeze with pricing moving above call positions. Major call positions at 200 230 and 255. Premarket high 235. Momentum traders can consider long above 235 with target 255 or pullbacks > 230 for a long position. There are no calls available > 255 so that can set a short term roof for the stock until strikes are added. Risky speculative stock but analysts are tripping over themselves chasing the stock higher. Potential parabolic move that ultimately will suffer the fate of all parabolics however impossible to determine when or at what price the parabola turns down.