Swing Trade Idea – December 11, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.37% Currencies: USA$ +.21%, CAD -.16%, YEN-.43%, BTC/USD+1.75%, Vix: 14.55
·
News: USA: CPI 2.7% y/y inline ; 10Y bond auction
13:00ET Canada: BOC rate decision 9:45ET
Stocks: PLAY-13%, M-10.5%, SKIL+9.4% EPS FAST-1.6% downgrade;
MDLZ+4% $9B
buyback
Overview: SPY 605.1 support 603 600 and resistance 605.9
607.5 SPY expected move +/- 3.1 QQQ 523.4 with support 520 516.5
resistance 525 expected move +/- 3.9. USA indices lifted with CPI
inline, which is expected price action as IV falls and hedges are taken off.
US$ and yields backed off which is supportive to risk assets. As usual the most
speculative and interest rate sensitive small cap index is outperforming. MAG7
are all higher ex-GOOGL led by TSLA and NVDA. Bitcoin and related names: COIN
MARA BTDR are higher. Indices will test the top of the daily expected
moves which means there is a potential for rejection or continuation higher.
SPX is currently above 6055 premarket and should that hold 6100 is the level
priced by the option market. SPX6000 continues to be the must hold level for
bulls.
Expected moves SPY(605.9-599.75), QQQ (524.5-516.7), IWM (239.5-233.9), SPX
(6065-6004)
Stocks to watch IBIT NVDA TSLA NVDA PLTR M PLAY Speculative
BTDR
AI
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG IBIT ETHE USO ARKK SMH US$ KRE XLE XLY IWM KWEB FXI SLV
TLT
S&P500 MDLZ PLTR TSLA MU SMCI HSY WBA
ALL PDCO BTDR
INOD MDLZ COIN BCS MARA MSTR HOOD RDDT RBLX PBR OKLO UPST PLAY BLCO M
RCKT HSY AI SMCI TEM KSS WBA BILI
Trade Idea: IBIT
IBIT is a bitcoin tracking ETF. Large call positions at 55 with largest upside strike at 60. Can consider long while above 55. IBIT was up ahead of CPI and lifted slightly on CPI. In theory, weakening of US$ may help bitcoin. Potential profit taking at open so can look for a VWAP pullback for a long.