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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 11, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.37%  Currencies:  USA$ +.21%, CAD -.16%, YEN-.43%,  BTC/USD+1.75%,  Vix: 14.55

    ·         NewsUSA: CPI 2.7% y/y inline ; 10Y bond auction 13:00ET  Canada: BOC rate decision 9:45ET
    Stocks:
     
    PLAY-13%, M-10.5%,  SKIL+9.4% EPS FAST-1.6% downgrade;  MDLZ+4% $9B buyback
    Overview: SPY 605.1  support 603 600  and resistance 605.9 607.5  SPY expected move +/- 3.1 QQQ 523.4 with support 520 516.5   resistance 525  expected move +/- 3.9.  USA indices lifted with CPI inline, which is expected price action as IV falls and hedges are taken off. US$ and yields backed off which is supportive to risk assets. As usual the most speculative and interest rate sensitive small cap index is outperforming. MAG7 are all higher ex-GOOGL led by TSLA and NVDA. Bitcoin and related names: COIN MARA BTDR are higher.  Indices will test the top of the daily expected moves which means there is a potential for rejection or continuation higher. SPX is currently above 6055 premarket and should that hold 6100 is the level priced by the option market. SPX6000 continues to be the must hold level for bulls.

    Expected moves SPY(605.9-599.75), QQQ (524.5-516.7), IWM (239.5-233.9), SPX (6065-6004)

    Stocks to watch
    IBIT NVDA TSLA NVDA PLTR  M PLAY  Speculative   BTDR AI

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    UNG IBIT ETHE USO ARKK SMH US$ KRE XLE XLY IWM  KWEB FXI SLV TLT

    S&P500 MDLZ PLTR TSLA MU SMCI HSY WBA

    ALL PDCO BTDR INOD MDLZ COIN BCS MARA MSTR HOOD RDDT RBLX PBR OKLO UPST PLAY BLCO M RCKT HSY AI SMCI TEM KSS WBA BILI




    Trade Idea: IBIT

    IBIT is a bitcoin tracking ETF. Large call positions at 55 with largest upside strike at 60. Can consider long while above 55. IBIT was up ahead of CPI and lifted slightly on CPI. In theory, weakening of US$ may help bitcoin. Potential profit taking at open so can look for a VWAP pullback for a long. 

     

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