Swing Trade Idea – December 17, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong
Asia
–
negative
global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.3% Currencies: USA$ -.04% CAD -.14% YEN-.24% BTC/USD+1.2% Vix: 15
·
News: USA: Retail Sales 830ET; Industrial production
915ET CDN: CPI 830ET; Finance minister resigned EUR:ZEW sentiment
17 vs 12.2
Stocks: TEVA+17% positive trial results; PLTR-2.7% debt
issuance QUBT+2.6% Nasa contract; Bitcoin names continue to squeeze BTDR MSTR
IREN RIOT COIN; PFE+2.2% provided inline guidance
Overview: SPY 604.5 support 604 601 600 and resistance 605
607 SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 536.3 with support 535 534 533
530 resistance 540 expected move +/- 4. Global equity markets are
weaker with negative macro setup with long yields and US$ higher. US
indices are all lower with small caps the weakest and Nasi the strongest. USA
retail sales were 0.7% vs 0.6% m/m which can be interpreted as consumer ok and
less pressure for Fed to cut rates. Tweet from the Nick from WSJ suggested Fed
will cut put signal pause which is a negative for a speculative market fueled
by liquidity. Breadth has been deteriorating with large moves by a small number
of MAG8 supporting the index. MAG8 are generally weak with NVDA -1.9% and now
below 130 level leading to downside. TSLA +2.2% continues to be squeezed and is
providing support. SPY is at the bottom of the daily expected move and
approaching Fri close where bounce or breakdown is expected. SPX 6050 is a
potential support level with 6030 next level below. SPX6100 is a large
resistance level and 6000 support likely into Dec20 Opex
Expected moves SPY(609.5-604.1) QQQ (542.2-534.2) IWM (235.8-231.7) SPX
(6101-6047)
Stocks to watch TSLA TEVA PFS NVDA PLTR AMD Speculative
QUBT
BTDR RIOT
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT MSOS XLY KWEB EFA EWC FXI UNG USO GDX IWM ETHE SLV XLK SMH
SPY XLF
S&P500 PFE TSLA SMCI MU PLTR NVDA AMD
ALL TEVA QUBT
KYVO BTDR SNY RIOT PFE STLA TSLA MARA SMCI HIMS MSTR CLSK MU SOFI IONQ AFRM
ZETA SOUN PLTR OKLO NVDA
Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA is highlighted today as it is now below the 130 put wall. Should it remain below the next major levels are 125 and 130. Potential bounce play over 130 but look for failure < 132. Weakness in NVDA can spill over to other semi names, especially if AVGO doesn’t continue to squeeze. SMH has been supported by the mammoth AVGO squeeze.