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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 17, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia negative  global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.3%  Currencies:  USA$ -.04% CAD -.14% YEN-.24%  BTC/USD+1.2%  Vix: 15

    ·         NewsUSA: Retail Sales 830ET; Industrial production 915ET CDN: CPI 830ET; Finance minister resigned EUR:ZEW sentiment 17 vs 12.2
    Stocks:
     TEVA+17% positive trial results; PLTR-2.7% debt issuance QUBT+2.6% Nasa contract;  Bitcoin names continue to squeeze BTDR MSTR IREN RIOT COIN;   PFE+2.2% provided inline guidance
    Overview: SPY 604.5  support 604 601 600  and resistance 605 607  SPY expected move +/- 2.7 QQQ 536.3 with support 535  534 533 530   resistance 540  expected move +/- 4. Global equity markets are weaker with negative macro setup with long yields and US$ higher.  US indices are all lower with small caps the weakest and Nasi the strongest. USA retail sales were 0.7% vs 0.6% m/m which can be interpreted as consumer ok and less pressure for Fed to cut rates. Tweet from the Nick from WSJ suggested Fed will cut put signal pause which is a negative for a speculative market fueled by liquidity. Breadth has been deteriorating with large moves by a small number of MAG8 supporting the index. MAG8 are generally weak with NVDA -1.9% and now below 130 level leading to downside. TSLA +2.2% continues to be squeezed and is providing support. SPY is at the bottom of the daily expected move and approaching Fri close where bounce or breakdown is expected. SPX 6050 is a potential support level with 6030 next level below.   SPX6100 is a large resistance level and 6000 support likely into Dec20 Opex

    Expected moves SPY(609.5-604.1) QQQ (542.2-534.2) IWM (235.8-231.7) SPX (6101-6047)

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA TEVA PFS  NVDA PLTR AMD  Speculative   QUBT BTDR RIOT

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    IBIT MSOS XLY KWEB EFA EWC FXI UNG USO GDX IWM ETHE SLV XLK SMH SPY XLF

    S&P500  PFE TSLA SMCI MU PLTR NVDA AMD

    ALL TEVA QUBT KYVO BTDR SNY RIOT PFE STLA TSLA MARA SMCI HIMS MSTR CLSK MU SOFI  IONQ AFRM ZETA SOUN PLTR OKLO NVDA



    Trade Idea: NVDA

    NVDA is highlighted today as it is now below the 130 put wall. Should it remain below the next major levels are 125 and 130. Potential bounce play over 130 but look for failure < 132. Weakness in NVDA can spill over to other semi names, especially if AVGO doesn’t continue to squeeze. SMH has been supported by the mammoth AVGO squeeze.

     

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