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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – negative  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.5%  Currencies:  USA$ +.02% CAD -.04% YEN-.36%  BTC/USD-1.55%  Vix: 16.65

·       News:  USA: FOMC rate decision 14ET EUR: CPI 2.2% y/y
Stocks:  GIS-5.1% JBL+9.2% BIRK+4.7% EPS ; OKLO+12.6% on agreement to provide power to Switch

·       Overview: SPY 606 support 605 603 600 and resistance 607 609 SPY expected move +/- 3.9 QQQ 537.2 with support 535 534 530 resistance 540  expected move +/- 5. US indices are up and Vix lower premarket, likely due to the Vix contract expiration at the open today. USA indices are being led by small caps which is unusual given that long yields are higher again premarket and may be short covering ahead of FOMC. FOMC is expected to cut rates by 25bps and market will react to the 2025 projection. IV is slightly elevated into the FOMC meeting and can lead to a bounce if Powell doesn’t surprise with too hawkish a message. Nick the Fed whisperer has suggested that Powell may be hawkish. SPX6100 is the upside resistance and 6000 the likely support into Opex. MAG7 are led by NVDA with TSLA trailing.  The Opex Fri is one of the largest ever and can lead to companies with large OTM call positions expiring pulling back and ones with large put positions rising. For last few weeks the S&P breadth has been very weak and support has come from large moves of a few large stocks. Potentially the move up in NVDA and down in TSLA may signal a reversal of the names they want to push. MU reports after the close and semi sector will move on its report. Premarket NVDA is lifting most semis but jury is still out on whether the NVDA bounce can continue or it’s another selling opportunity. Two of the story sectors to watch today are Quantum computing (QUBT RGTI IONQ GOOGL) and Nuclear Power (OKLO SMR VST CEG).      SPX6100 is a large resistance level and 6000 support likely into Dec20 Opex

Expected moves SPY(608.2-600.4) QQQ (540.8-530.8) IWM (234.1-228.1) SPX (6089.6-6011.6)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMZN, IWM, JBL, TSLA, GIS Speculative QUBT, RGTI, OKLO, SMR

Pre-800ET
Indices SMH, IWM, KRE, USO, XLK, XBI, RSP, SPY, XLF, IBIT, ETHE, TLT, SLV, KWEB FXI

S&P500 JBL, NVDA, MU, DELL, CVS, UBER, WDC, UNH, CNC, FFIV,  GIS, TSLA

ALL QUBT, OKLO, BIRK, RGTI, SMR, NVDA, LI, GFI, TSM, MU, BCS, SOFI, SMCI, HSAI, IONQ, GIS, VKTX, SOUN, AZN, TSLA, RIOT, TEVA, RIVN

Trade Idea: MU

MU reports earnings after the close. Expected move is +/-13. Largest call position at 125 with large positions above and large put position at 90. Option market is heavily leaning to calls which can lead to an outsized move on a positive reaction or a negative. Potential diagonal trade to trade directionally or double diagonal to trade a move in either direction. Look for semis to trade in sympathy with MU.