.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.06%  Currencies:  USA$ +.08% CAD -.32% YEN-.0%  BTC/USD+1.9%  Vix: 16.7

·       News:  USA: Richmond mfg index 10ET JP: Core CPI 7/7 1.7% vs 1.5%
Stocks:  AVGO+2.5% NVDA+0.49% AMD+2.4% semis continuation

·       Overview: SPY595.4  support 595 593 591.7  and resistance 597.7 600  SPY expected move +/- 3.0 QQQ 524 with support 522 520 resistance 525 526.7 528 expected move +/- 3.2. USA indices are slightly higher premarket with USA markets open for a half day hence light volume expected be light. MAG8 led by AVGO TSLA META with semis continuing the Mon run. AVGO +140 call wall can lead to a larger move. SMH is above the 250 call wall and NVDA above the 140 call wall so hedgies can push semis today if they want to. China stocks are bid perhaps due to continuing chatter about stimulus or the EOY loss selling is done and traders are looking for a 2025 bounce. Bitcoin is bouncing, could be early but at a potential technical bounce level. Seasonality is positive and SPX > 6000 can lead to the JPM 6055 collar strike acting as a magnet. Santa Claus rally may or may not come but the 1/2d today and close on Wed leads to faster decay of OTM put options which can provide a lift to equity. Caveat is volume and liquidity is low so 0DTE options have a larger impact. I am surprised that the market has shrugged off the rise in the long yields and the US$. At some point this will matter but I guess for now flows are more important than macro but one shouldn’t be complacent.
 
Expected moves SPY(597.7-591.7) QQQ (526.1-519.6) IWM (223.2-219.6) SPX (6004-5944)

Stocks to watch AVGO, NVDA, AMD, IBIT, KWEB, TLT Speculative   QUBT, IONQ, LUNR

Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, IBIT, FXI, KWEB, US$, SMH, USO, QQQ, IWM, SLV, TLT,

S&P500  AVGO, AMD

ALL DQ, MNSO, HSAI, AVGO, AMD, HMC, BABA, FRO, FUTU, ORA, RGTI, ALAB, SMR, X

Trade Idea: IBIT

Bitcoin has been one of the best performing assets but has pulled back. If one is ok with volatile assets, can consider a long using the Monday low as a stop with target 58, 60 which is a decent risk reward. IBIT has options and IV of 62% which makes covered calls an idea. Call skew makes OTM calls more expensive and call debit spreads attractive risk reward.