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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 26, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.55% Currencies: USA$ -.04% CAD -.1% YEN-.26%  BTC/USD-3.5% Vix: 16.25

    ·       News: USA: UE 830ET World: USA is one of the only stock market exchanges open today

    ·       Stocks:  

    ·       Overview: SPY599.0 support 598 597 595 and resistance 600 03 604  SPY expected move +/- 2.9 QQQ 527.8 with support 527 525 resistance 530 533 535 expected move +/- 3. USA equity markets is one of the few open so look for low volume trading with potential for sharp moves. SPY and QQQ have moved lower overnight close to the bottom of the daily expected move hence look for bounce potentially after some weakness on the open. While SPX > 6000 the market maker positioning will be supportive. MAG7 are generally weaker after the surge Dec24 with TSLA leading and NVDA lagging. Yields are continuing to move higher which historically negative for equities, especially small caps. Small caps are leaders to the downside and may continue lower unless yields reverse. SPY, QQQ, TSLA, NVDA closed at the top of the weekly expected move and TLT at the bottom. Potential for some mean reversion in yields which may lift small caps. Bitcoin has pulled back after Dec24 surge which is weighing on related names like MSTR MARA COIN. Space related names have a bid premarket: LUNR RDW RKLB one of the narrative groups like quantum computing that have been bid last few week. Very speculative.

    Expected moves SPY(604.2-598.4) QQQ (533-527) IWM (224.9-221.9) SPX (6069-6011)

    Stocks to watch
    TSLA, HMC, NVDA, IBIT, MSTR Speculative ACHR LUNR, MARA

    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    USO, MSOS, GDX, GLD, SLV, UNG, ETHE, IBIT, TLT, SMH, FXI, KRE, XBI, ARKK, IWM, QQQ, XLK

    S&P500 SMCI, MO, MU, WBD, ORCL, AMZN, PARA

    ALL HMC, LI, HSAI, GME, ACHR, LUNR, RDW, ALAB, SMR, SMCI, XPEV, CRDO, MSTR, IREN, DQ, BTDR, MARA, QUBT, CORZ, ERJ, HUT, COIN, MO
     


    Trade Idea: LUNR

    LUNR is approaching a breakout level. Speculative name in Space category. Large call position at 17 which can act as resistance or above can lead to a squeeze with call positions at 17.5 18 20 to the upside. 17% short interest can lead to a squeeze. Not for the faint of heart as very volatile. Option spreads are a way to trade it as IV is very high.

     

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