Swing Trade Idea – December 26, 2024
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe,
Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.55% Currencies: USA$ -.04% CAD -.1% YEN-.26% BTC/USD-3.5% Vix: 16.25
· News: USA: UE 830ET World: USA is one of the only stock market exchanges open today
· Stocks:
· Overview: SPY599.0
support 598 597 595 and resistance 600 03 604 SPY expected move +/- 2.9
QQQ 527.8 with support 527 525 resistance 530 533 535 expected move +/- 3. USA
equity markets is one of the few open so look for low volume trading with
potential for sharp moves. SPY and QQQ have moved lower overnight close to the
bottom of the daily expected move hence look for bounce potentially after some
weakness on the open. While SPX > 6000 the market maker positioning will be
supportive. MAG7 are generally weaker after the surge Dec24 with TSLA leading
and NVDA lagging. Yields are continuing to move higher which historically
negative for equities, especially small caps. Small caps are leaders to the
downside and may continue lower unless yields reverse. SPY, QQQ, TSLA, NVDA
closed at the top of the weekly expected move and TLT at the bottom. Potential
for some mean reversion in yields which may lift small caps. Bitcoin has pulled
back after Dec24 surge which is weighing on related names like MSTR MARA COIN.
Space related names have a bid premarket: LUNR RDW RKLB one of the narrative
groups like quantum computing that have been bid last few week. Very
speculative.
Expected moves SPY(604.2-598.4) QQQ (533-527) IWM (224.9-221.9) SPX (6069-6011)
Stocks to watch TSLA, HMC, NVDA, IBIT, MSTR Speculative ACHR LUNR, MARA
Pre-800ET
Indices USO, MSOS, GDX, GLD, SLV, UNG, ETHE, IBIT, TLT, SMH, FXI, KRE,
XBI, ARKK, IWM, QQQ, XLK
S&P500 SMCI, MO, MU, WBD, ORCL, AMZN, PARA
ALL HMC, LI,
HSAI, GME, ACHR, LUNR, RDW, ALAB, SMR, SMCI, XPEV, CRDO, MSTR, IREN,
DQ, BTDR, MARA, QUBT, CORZ, ERJ, HUT, COIN, MO
Trade Idea: LUNR
LUNR is approaching a breakout level. Speculative name in Space category. Large call position at 17 which can act as resistance or above can lead to a squeeze with call positions at 17.5 18 20 to the upside. 17% short interest can lead to a squeeze. Not for the faint of heart as very volatile. Option spreads are a way to trade it as IV is very high.