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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.3%, Currencies: USA$ -.05%, CAD -+.03%, YEN-.1%,  BTC/USD +0.4% Vix: 14.4

·       News:  USA: ADP jobs 146k vs 152k Services PMI 10ET; Powell 1345ET  China: Caixin services PMI 51.5 vs 52.4 EUR:Services PMI 49.5 vs 49.2

·       Stocks:  CRM+12.7%, MRVL+12.8%, RY+1.5%, DLTR+4%, OKTA+13%, PSTG+21%, FL-14%, THO-4.6%, HRL-2%, BOX-1.6%, CHWY-4% EPS
Overview: SPY 605.7 support 603.5 601.5 and resistance 606.4 SPY expected move +/- 2.5 QQQ 520.6 with support 520 515 513.7 resistance 521 expected move +/- 3.2. USA indices are higher premarket led by Nasi which along with the S&P are above the call walls and hence can potentially trend higher. Macro setup is bearish with long yields and US$ higher but premarket is irrelevant. The AI narrative has been reignited by CRM and MRVL earnings which have moved 2x the expected move. CRM missed earnings, had 8% y/y revenue growth and provided lower guidance but the stock is spiking which IMO indicates shorts being squeezed. MRVL reported 7% y/y revenue growth but forecasting 19% growth next quarter. Net is a move higher in software names and semis and tech in general. OKTA earnings are lifting security stocks like FTNT. FL earnings will weigh on shoe companies e.g. NKE. SPX has been pinned and a big move in tech would normally lead to selling in other sectors but if S&P can continue to trend, potential to drag other sectors. Question for today is whether the premarket move can stick with SPX already at the daily expected move. This can lead to a squeeze higher but also to a reversal. The two market moving events today are the Services PMI at 10ET and Powell speaking at 1345. 

·       Expected moves SPY (606.4-601.5), QQQ (520-513.7), IWM (241.7-238.3), SPX (6074-6025)

Stocks to watch AMZN, NVDA, CRM, MRVL, PSTG, DLTR, FL, META,  Speculative LUNR, CHWY

Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IGV, SMH, XLK, ARKK, QQQ, US$, IBIT, SLV, UNG, TLT, MSOS, GDX, KWEB

S&P500 CRM, DLTR, ORCL, AVGO, CMG, AVGO, MU, FTNT, NVDA, AMZN, PLTR, AMD, NKE, GM

ALL PSTG, OKTA, CRM, MRVL, DLTR, ROKU, MXL, HOOD, OKLO, S, ORCL, BTDR, PATH, APP, MSTR, SNOW, CRDO, SQ,  FL, LUNR, FRO, CHWY, NKE, AZN, IREN, JD, GM

Trade Idea: CRM

CRM has squeezed well above the expected move on IMO uninspiring earnings. Expected move was 350 and becomes a support level. There are large call positions at 360, 370 and 380.  Above 370 potential continuation to 380. Below 370 look for pullback > 360 for a bounce. Below 360 look for bounce > 350 and below 350 would indicate that the move has failed.