Swing Trade Idea – January 22, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong
Kong Asia – slight positive global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.11% Currencies: USA$ +.02% CAD -.24% YEN-.27% BTC/USD -2% Vix: 16.45
· News: USA: Conference board leading index 10ET
· Stocks: NFLX+15%, UAL+5.9%, APH+4.5%, PG+3%, JNJ-2.1%, ABT -1.5% EPS
· Overview: SPY 606.2 support 605 602 600 and resistance 607.7 SPY expected move +/- 3.1 QQQ 529.9 with support 525 523 520 resistance 530 535 expected move +/- 4.1. USA indices are higher premarket and have reached the top of the weekly expected move and at or above call walls which means look for reversal or a squeeze higher if they buy calls rather than sell. Tech sector is in focus with NFLX large upside move and Trump announcing Stargate, a company investing $500B in AI infrastructure. Companies leading are ORCL, Softbank and OpenAI and lifting MSFT ARM OKLO NVDA and any company loosely associated with AI from semi to power for data centers and likely networking companies like ANET CSCO as well as construction companies. TEM is the Pelosi healthcare AI company. Bitcoin is notable with weakness inspite of tech strength. Macro is neutral with US$, yields and oil flat. MAG7 are led by NVDA and MSFT but TSLA and AAPL are notably weaker. Strength of MAG7 can dampen the rest of the names if the index rise is capped today. Remember indices are poised to stall or breakout today.
·
Expected moves SPY (606.2-600) QQQ (528.9-520.7) IWM (231.6-228) SPX
(6080-6018)
Stocks to watch NFLX, NVDA, MSFT, OKLO, ARM, AAPL, TSLA Speculative TEM, QUBT,
NN
Pre-800ET
Indices ARKK, KWEB, GDX, FXI, GLD, SLV, SMH, SLV, EFA, XLY, TLT, XLU, IWM,
IGV, XME, ETHE, USO, UNG, US$
S&P500 NFLX, ORCL,
STX, APTV, UAL, ANET, APH, VST, SMCI, ANET, NVDA, PF, AVGO, MRNA, MSFT, JNJ, F, ABT,
TSLA, HAL
Other NN, ALLY, QUBT, ARM, AI, OKLO, TEM, HMY, GFI, SOC, VR, RGTI,
AAL, NTDOY, MRVL, NBIS, JD, RW, LUNR, RKLB, DJT, FUTU, CELH, BILI, SOUN
Trade Idea: NVDA
AI mania has returned on the announcement of Stargate which is reinvigorating the animal spirits and the King of AI animal spirits is NVDA. Extended premarket, look for > 145 for a move to 150 but with QQQ at the top of the weekly expected move, be on the look out for a pullback so caution on chasing. ORCL ARM MSFT OKLO are other names benefiting from the exuberance.