Swing Trade Idea – January 23, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong
Kong Asia – slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.55% Currencies: USA$ +.11% CAD -.20% YEN+.12% BTC/USD -2.7% Vix: 16.75
· News: USA: UE claims 830ET; Trump speaking at Davos 11ET CDN: Retail sales 830ET
· Stocks: GE+8.3%, UNP+3.9%, ELV+4.4%, AAL-7.3%, MKC-2.4% EPS Stargate winner pullback after surge: NVDA -1.85%, MSFT -.68%, AMD -1.19%, ORCL-2%, ARM-3.7%, OKLO-5.5%
· Overview: SPY 605.8
support 605 603.5 600 and resistance 606 607.8 SPY expected move +/- 2.9 QQQ
529.6 with support 529 526 resistance 530 535 expected move +/- 4. USA indices
are lower with QQQ and IWM weaker than SPY. Macro is negative with yields and
US$ higher and foreign equities lower. Breadth was weak Wed and market was
supported by outsized on tech names after the Stargate announcement. Today,
profit taking in those names is weighing on the QQQ. The speculative names
appear to be trading as a basket and quantum, space, bitcoin are trading lower
after large moves Wed. GE positive earnings reaction may be positive for the
aerospace sector; ELV for the healthcare insurance and AAL negative reaction
negative for airline/travel names. MAG7 are mixed with META leading and NVDA
lagging. AAPL is potentially bouncing after a 15.5% decline. SPX large iron
condor trade with short strikes at 6060, 6110 sets the daily range for a large
institutional trader. Trump is speaking at Davos at 11ET so take care. SPX is
currently in positive gamma which means that movement should be reduced
and mean reversion is likely with caveat that news bombs are a potential.
Expected moves SPY (609.3-603.5) QQQ (535.5-527.6) IWM (230-226.6) SPX
(6115-6057)
Stocks to watch NFLX, NVDA, MSFT, OKLO, ARM, AAPL, TSLA, Speculative TEM, QUBT,
NN
Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, XLI, XLV, XLE, XLF, US$, IBIT, SLV, ETHE, SMH, ARKK, GDX, IGV,
KWEB, XLK, TLT, UNG, GLD
S&P500 GE, CVS, EA, MU, DELL,
ORCL, NVDA, SMCI, PLTR, DAL, AVGO
Other GE, GME, CVS, BBVA, ZIM, ASTS, EA, AAL, OKLO, RGTI, SMR, RGTI,
TEM, ARM, MU, MARA, SOUN, CLSK, RKLB, RIOT, NBIS, LUNR, MSTR
Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL has sold down on concerns that iPhone sales are slowing in China and analysts are reducing estimates. AAPL > 225 can bounce with target 227.5-230. AAPL is in a downtrend be prepared for bounces to fail. Earnings at end of the month
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