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Date: Jan 3 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.41%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.4% CAD +.11% YEN+.34%  BTC/USD -.7%  Vix: 17.7

·       News:  USA: ISM MFG PMI 10ET; FOMC Barkin 11ET 

·       Stocks:  X-7.67% Sale to Japan company blocked US$ lower lifting foreign stocks EEM KWEB FXI  Upgrades: BYD CHWY DVN FANG SQ NET Downgrades: LMT UBER GOOGL SOFI

·       Overview: SPY 586.6 support 585 580 and resistance 587.8 590 SPY expected move +/- 4.6 QQQ 512.3 with support 510 505 resistance 515 517.8 expected move +/- 5.3. USA indices rising slightly premarket. US$ and yields have pulled back which is supportive to foreign stocks and bonds. MAG7 are higher ex-AAPL which fell Thurs on report of China price cuts. AMZN, NVDA are the leading MAG7 with 140 the key NVDA level to watch. Power providers CEG VST are leading S&P500 along with C. Financials have a bid premarket and with earning in 2 weeks, potential for a run into earnings. TSLA is one to watch today after the Thurs drop on lower deliveries. TSLA IV is 107% which suggests a daily move of 6.6%. USA indices are negative gamma which means drops will be sold and pops will be bought which leads to higher volatility. Technicals are weak, SPX 5800 is key support level and 5900 support. Inside those levels SPX may chop around. ISM mfg at 10ET and FOMC Barkin 11ET may be market moving.

Expected moves SPY (589.3-580) QQQ (515.5-505) IWM (223.4-218.8) SPX (5914.6-5822.6)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMZN, TLT, SLV, AAPL, X Speculative MNSO, CHWY, QUBT, RGTI

Pre-800ET
Indices FXI, KWEB, TLT, SMH, SLV, ETHE, QQQ, XLY, EWC, UNG, IBIT, UUP

S&P500 C, CEG, VST, PHM, IP
Other MNSO, KC, UBS, LI, SQ, CHWY, TCOM, DB, SHEL, KD, FUTU, CEG, X, QUBT, TWO, HSAI, DQ, DEO, CVNA, MT, BUD, RGTI

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA is just below the 140 key level where above can pop. NVDA CEO is the keynote speaker at CES next week which is a major event an opportunity for Jensen to announce new products and/or hype the company. Expected move for next week is +/-7.6 with large call positions at 145 and 150. NVDA IV has dropped  making calls more favorable if wish to speculate on a CES pop. CES is usually bullish for tech companies reporting but one must be mindful that that the general market is currently not strong