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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.0%  Currencies:  USA$ +.18% CAD -0.4% YEN-.4%  BTC/USD +2% Vix: 17

·       News: USA: Steel and Aluminum 25% tariffs will affect Canada EUR: Lagarde speaking
Stocks: ON-3.9%, MNDY+23%, ROK+7.3%, MCD+1.3% EPS CLF, NUE, X, STLD all higher on tariff announcement BP+6.8% Elliot took position
Overview: SPY 604.4  Expected move 4.7 Resistance 605 608 Support 604 600; QQQ 527.5 Expected move 5.6 Resistance 530 Support 526 525 522. USA indices are moving high since Sunday futures opened, likely squeezing shorts that were anticipating a Monday gap down on new tariffs. The tariff du jour is 25% on steel and aluminum which is negative for Canada in general but lifting USA steel and aluminum names (NUE, CLF, X, STLD, CENX) even though they own many of the Canadian plants.  USA indices are higher led by QQQ with MAG7 ex-TSLA bouncing after drawdowns last week. NFLX and META have been the strongest names and are continuing to run. Macro factors in theory are not positive with US$ and yields higher but strength in metals, China, energy. Gold is continuing to rampage higher and now above 2900 but technically extended. Names reporting this week are getting the usual Pavlovian buying ahead of earnings with SMCI, SHOP, CFLT, UBER, HOOD, UPST, LYFT, AEM and others bid up premarket. AlI cohort are all being bought premarket with NVDA, ORCL, ANET, VST all higher in premarket. The move higher is likely short covering so question is whether it can continue or whether it’s a bull trap. SPY upside targets are 605, 608 if the squeeze continues and premarket low 602 is a level that must hold for bulls. There is no major economic data today but caution that a tariff tweet can occur at any time and result in a sharp drop.

Expected Move SPX (6073-5979) SPY (605.5-596) QQQ (528.5-517.3) IWM (228.5-223.5)

Stocks to watch BABA, MSFT, GOOGL, NUE, TSLA Speculative MNDY, LI
Pre-800ET
Indices XME, UNG, KWEB, GDX, FXI, ETHE, IBIT, GLD, USO, SLV, TLT

S&P500 NUE, STLD, ROK, SMCI, NEM, TMUS, UBER, FCX, ANET, ORCL, AVGO, MCD, ADBE, VST, FTNT, PANW, DVN, NKE, ON, SCHW
Other MNDY, AXSM, CENX, CLF, BP, HSAI, CMC, TAL, AU, BABA, GFI, AA, MBLY, FUTU, LI, BEKE, ASAN, JD, SMTC, TXG, IONQ, TLK, QGEN, BRKR, TSEM, CLS, AZN

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP reports earnings Feb 11 premarket. Currently bid up premarket 121.5 which is above the 120 call wall which can lead to 125 130. Earnings expected move is +/-14.6 into Friday. IV 142% this week is a set-up for a diagonal/calendar option trade for earnings.