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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.19% Currencies: USA$ -.33%, CAD +0.38%, YEN+.1%, BTC/USD -1.3%, Vix: 16.25

·       News: USA: Retail sales 830ET; Industrial production 915ET; Trump speaking TBD China: New loans 5130B vs 770B
Stocks: PANW -4.3%, GDDY -6.8%, AMAT -4.8%, MRNA -4.9%, MGA -42%, COIN -2.2%, TWLO -9%, ABNB +13.4%, ROKU +6.8%, FROG +13.8%, DKNG +3.9% EPS NVDA 13F added NBIS WRD removed NNOX, SOUN, SERV and reduced position in ARM still has positions in APLD, RXRX  

·       Overview: SPY 609.4 Expected move 3.3 Resistance 610 613 Support 608 607 606; QQQ 535.4 Expected move 4.1 Resistance 540 Support 535 533 531 530. Econ: USA retail sales -0.9% vs -0.2%; Core -0.4% vs 0.3% CDN mfg sales -0.3% vs 0.7%. Industrial production 915ET. Reaction: US$ and bond yields lower (bond prices higher). China stocks strong across the board on credit expansion, less tariff concern and revaluation on AI with DeepSeek catalyst. MAG7 are weak ex the 2 amigos NVDA and TSLA which hedge funds use as trading chips. Today is Opex and need to be wary with names with alot of out of the money calls expiring today. SPY is now at the top of the weekly expected move along with AAPL, NFLX, GLD so some caution is warranted. Correlation between S&P500 stocks is at 8% indicating that there is a high level of decoupling from the index and this leads to large moves in heavily weighted names results in selling of others. This can be a precursor to a reversal or a blow-off top. Index vol out 1 month is low which makes it inexpensive to trade the potential upside blow-off top with limited downside in the event of a reversal which remains a risk given potential of tape bombs.
  
Expected Move SPX (6148-6082) SPY (613-606) QQQ (540-531) IWM (228-224)

Stocks to watch TSLA, ABNB, INTC, BABA, ROKU, PANW, MRNA   Speculative SERV, INFA, SOUN, KC, GDS
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, SLV, FXI, UNG, ARKK, ARKG, ETHE, USO, FEZ, XLY, XLE, GDX, EFA, MSOS, US$, QQQ, SPY

S&P500 ABNB, INTC, TSLA, WYNN, SMCI, MU, PANW, MRNA

Other KC, PONY, ROKU, GDS, BILI, NBIS, GME, FUTU, JD, BABA, DKNG, SERV, INFA, SOUN, TWLO, COIN, TSM

Trade Idea: KWEB

China names are having a strong week on the back of: higher loan growth, AI mania due to DeepSeek, reduced tariff fear and low valuations. Large names BABA, BIDU, JD and smaller more volatile names KC GDS are all in play. Potential for further upside; however the moves have been large so pullbacks and/or consolidation are likely so take care chasing. KWEB prior high was 38.8 so the next level to watch. As a reference the 2021 high was > 90 so there is potentially a lot more upside but could be a bumpy ride. One can use a pullback to add longer term options to trade a move higher.