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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.38% Currencies: USA$ +.07%, CAD -.11%, YEN+.05%, BTC/USD +.03%, Vix: 17.2

·       News: USA: FOMC Meeting minutes 14ET NZD: 50bps rate cut UK: CPI 3% y/y vs 2.8%
Stocks: CDNS-2.8%, OXY-0.9%, ANET-4.3%, ETSY-4.2%, GLBE-11.6%, WING-7.9%, CE-20%, ADI+4.9%, GRMN+5% EPS  

·       Overview: SPY 610 Expected move 2.8 Resistance 612 614 Support 610 609 605; QQQ 538.2 Expected move 3.4 Resistance 540 Support 537 535 534. USA indices are moving lower premarket which is likely due the Vix expiration at the open which leads to a vol increase. Nomura has flagged large March Vix call buys and suggested to clients to consider puts with 3-6m to expiration. S&P volatility is very low as is correlation which is a combo which can lead to a blow-off top or a decline. Opex Fri opens a window for potentially larger moves into the end of next week. Macro is slightly negative with 10y yield higher which is usually headwind for small caps. FED meeting minutes are 14ET and may cause some market movement. SPY 609, QQQ 537 are trigger levels where volatility can expand if breached. IWM is already below the 227 trigger level and is the weakest USA index. Speculative meme names are still being bid indicating the casino is still open AI(TEM SOUN NBIS) Quantum (RGTI) Electric Planes (ACHR) EV(BEKE LI) ADI is higher on reporting better than expected earnings and a divi increase. Revenue was -3.6% y/y which was better than expected but does indicate that semi has not recovered despite the focus on NVDA which reports next week. MAG7 mixed with META continuing to slide and GOOGL leading to upside. NVDA hanging out right below the 140 level with large call positions waiting. Some earnings names that can continue to run CE, WING, ETSY, APPN, GRMN. Bitcoin is up which means the usual suspects MARA RIOT MSTR will have retail chasing but some care warranted.
 
Expected Move SPX (6158-6101) SPY (614-609) QQQ (543-536) IWM (229-226)

Stocks to watch IBIT, GOOGL, ANET, META, WING, ETSY, INTC     Speculative CELH, BEKE, TEM, RGTI, WRD
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, ETHE, IBIT, US$, ARKG, XLE, ARKK, EFA, FEZ, IWM, XLB, KWEB, TLT, KRE, XLF, IGV

S&P500 SMCI, ANET, INTC, CCL, AVGO, BAC
Other CELH, STM, BEKE, LI, HSAI, PGY, OSCR, AAOI, RGTI, TEM, ACHR, SOUN, HOOD, NBIS, WRD, SBLK, AU, ETSY, OKLO, IONQ

Trade Idea: META

META has been the strongest of the MAG7 and is starting to weaken. Large option position at 700 make it a key pivot level. Below 700 there is a put position at 690 and very little below. Positioning has been very bullish so caution below 700 into Opex if calls start to unwind. A retake of 720 would be important for bulls.