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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.38%  Currencies:  USA$ +.07%, CAD -.11%, YEN+.05%,  BTC/USD +1.7%,  Vix: 17.05

·         News:  USA: Philly Fed; UE claims 830ET; CB Leading Index 10ET CDN: PPI  830ET
Stocks:  WMT-8%, NTES-1.4%, SO-1%, CVNA-8.5%, CVE-4.7%, BLDR-4.3%, NBIS -11%, U-9%, ENVX-4%,   BABA+10.6%, PWR+6%, LYG+7.3%,  EPS PLTR-4.8% Insider selling and defense spending cut concerns  

·         Overview: SPY 611.1  Expected move 2.9 Resistance 613.3 615  Support 610 609;  QQQ 538.2 Expected move 3.5 Resistance 539 540 Support 536 535. USA indices are slightly lower premarket inside the last 2 day trading range.  Macro factors:  10y yield and US$ lower which is positive; oil, metals and aggs higher which is inflationary; Yen is strong which can be negative for tech due to the carry trade. UE claims were slightly higher than expected and Philly Fed slightly lower. WMT FY2026 forecast was weaker than expected and resulted in move down 2x the expected and is weighing on other retailers and concerning since the USA economy is consumer driven. BABA has moved almost 2x the expected move higher on better than expected earnings and lifting the Chinese stocks with China ETFs leading the market. MSFT was boosted Wed on an announcement of a Quantum chip and today the Quantum stocks are the meme of the day. NBIS down hard on earnings has taken the lustre off the AI meme basket premarket.  The industrial semi stocks may continue with ON leading the S&P. They surged Wed after ADI reported earnings that didnt decline as much as expected. TXN, MCHP, STM, ON are in that basket. PLTR the beloved stock was hit yesterday and continuing today on concerns that defense budget cuts will hurt it coupled with CEO cashing out on the top while retail chase it into the stratosphere. SPX is in positive gamma with record low correlation which means if some stocks are down, others will be bought. Volatility is low which is a set-up for the infamous blow-off top however also the risk that a negative surprise can lead to a larger move lower. SPX 6100 is the level to watch with pullbacks likely leading to bounces like we keep seeing; however risk below 
 
Expected Move  SPX (6173-6115), SPY (615.8-610), QQQ (543-536), IWM (228-224.7)

Stocks to watch IBIT GOOGL ANET META WING ETSY INTC     Speculative   CELH BEKE TEM RGTI WRD
Pre-800ET
Indices  KWEB FXI IBIT GDX QTUM SLV TLT EFA GLD SMH UNG XLP XRT ARKG IGV $US SPY

S&P500 ON  WMT PLTR SMCI TGT INTC
Other  VNET CWAN GDS FTAI BILI BABA SHAK KC RGTI SWTX FUTU JD IONQ GFI PDD SMR CCI ACHR NBIS U PGY CVNA TEM WBD CVE ENVX HIMS FRO

Trade Idea: WMT

WMT 2x the expected move drop on a weaker than expected forecast. Bouncing hard premarket as shorts cover and dip buyers step up. 100 is a major option positioning level. Potential retracement on failure could be used for a fade or a move above that holds can lead to higher prices and proof that fundamentals are irrelevant and flows alone drive the market. Watch TGT AMZN and other retails to see if they are bouncing back.