.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral  global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.19%  Currencies:  USA$ +.02% CAD +.09% YEN-.44%  BTC/USD +0.06%  Vix: 17.8

·         News:  USA: Consumer Confidence 10ET
Stocks:  O-2.6%, HIMS-22%, TCOM-8%, ZM-4%,  DOCN+18%,   EPS  
Overview: SPY 597  Expected move 4.6 Resistance 598.8 600 592.6   Support 595;  QQQ 519.7 Expected move 5.2 Resistance 523 525 526  Support 515 514.  USA indices sold down overnight and are bouncing in the NY premarket. SPY bounced off 595 which is the put wall and a key level to watch for further downside. QQQ put wall is 520 and price is currently dancing at that level with risk below.  MAG7 are mixed with GOOGL leading to downside. NVDA is holding 130 after pulling back Monday on more stories that USA is planning on tightening China export restrictions. China stocks are bouncing today after large drawdown Monday. Bitcoin has broken the key 90k level and weighing heavily on bitcoin related names such as MSTR and MARA.  Today’s headline mover is HIMS which is down 22% on potential that can can sell it’s weight loss drug which competes with NVO which is higher. DOCN is a big post earnings upside mover.  WH comments that Canada/Mexico tariffs will proceed was a negative headline which may have led to selling Monday and underscores risks intraday. Known news event is consumer confidence 10ET.  Market is in negative gamma which means market makers will sell into dips and buy rips so higher volatility conditions. So far the market has been rotating into staples, healthcare and out of tech and into MAG7 names like AAPL and out of TSLA. If breadth becoming correlated to the downside is a signal that a larger downside move is coming. Premarket not seeing that but watch SPY 595.
 
Expected Move  SPX (6029-5937), SPY (602-592.6), QQQ (525-514), IWM (218.7-213.7)

Stocks to watch NVDA, PYPL, TLT,  IBIT, SLV, ARKK, GDX, MSTR,    Speculative   DOCN, LI, HIMS, BTDR
Pre-800ET
Indices  FXI, KWEB, EFA, TLT, UNG, FEZ, XLF, XLV,  ETHE, IBIT, ARKG, SLV, ARKK, GDX, USO, GLD

S&P500 PYPL, SMCI, PLTR, CCL, O,
Other  DOCN, LI, YY, XPEV, BABA, GDS, NVO, BILI, BEKE, WB, STLA, JD, XYZ, PDD, HCP,  HIMS, BTDR, TEM, TCOM, HUT, MSTR, MARA, ZM 

Trade Idea: TLT

TLT is broke out above the 90 level to the highest levels of 2025.  This is either the usual risk-off move or a bet that inflation and the economy is slowing.  Potential to run higher as the 10y falls but TLT is at the top of the weekly expected move. Bonds are highly shorted and there is potential for a squeeze higher but a pullback > 90 is potentially a safer way to join in. 10Y is 4.3% and previous pullback was to 4.2% so some more room to go.