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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Slight positive  global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.13% Currencies: USA$ +.28% CAD -.38% YEN-.27%  BTC/USD -.19% Vix: 18.35

·       News: USA: New home sales 10ET JPN: Core CPIy/y 2.2% vs 2%
Stocks: LMND-14%, STLA-3.9%, AAP-2.9%, GO-26%, AXON+15%, WDAY+11.8%, JACK+10%, INTU+8%, EYE+21%, BUD+8% EPS SMCI+22.8% Delivered SEC filings GM+4% Raised dividend, buyback   
Overview: SPY 597.4 Expected move 4.4 Resistance 598.6 600 602   Support 596.5 595 593.6 590; QQQ 517.2 Expected move 5.3 Resistance 518.6 519.8 524 525 Support 515 510. Global indices are bouncing led by China and QQQ within the USA. Tues market was a risk-off day and premarket set-up is a flip to risk-on with momentum names bouncing and the AI / high valuation / profitless tech all bouncing. NVDA is the star, reporting after the close and currently bouncing in the premarket. The AI basket includes MU, ORCL, OKLO, PLTR, VST, DELL i.e chips, software, power, mfgs and expect the basket to rise or fall on NVDA’s forecast and Jensen’s power of persuasion. China names are broadly bouncing led by EVs (BEKE LI XPEV) and retail (BABA JD) in spite of WH comments which knocked them down Monday. Remember that these are ADRs traded in Hong Kong. NVDA earnings coupled with PCE Fri has led to elevated IV this week and a pick-up in Put buying as hedges. USA indices are flirting with breakdown with potentially a large drop below 5950. It’s the setup for a large move in either direction. In recent past this has led to outsized positive bounces but a negative NVDA report could lead to a negative move. Since IV is elevated prior to March expiration, option traders can consider Put verticals for the downside or Call Verticals for the upside or more advanced can consider NVDA butterfly trades. SMH or QQQ can be used as proxies for NVDA. Note that the market is trading baskets like momentum or AI so expected all stocks in the basket to move with the report.

Expected Move SPX (5999-5911), SPY (598.6-589.8), QQQ (518.6-508), IWM (217.9-212.9)

Stocks to watch NVDA, TSLA, BABA, SMCI, GM, GO Speculative BEKE, LI, LUNR, FLYW, GO, LMND
Pre-800ET
Indices  KWEB, FXI, ARKQ, SMH, IGV, ARKK, ARKG, XLK, XLY, QQQ, QTUM, FEZ, XME, IWM, ETHE, UNG, IBIT, XLP, GDX, USO, XLV, ARKF

S&P500 SMCI, FCX, VST, ANET, GM, TJX, MU, NVDA, AVGO, PLTR, TSLA, INTC, AMD, AMZN, GOOG
Other BEKE, LI, LUNR, BUD, OKLO, XPEV, VRT, FUTU, JD, SMT, TCOM, NBIS, TEM, BABA, IONQ, FLYW, GO, LMND, STLA, GFI, HMY, BP 

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA expected move on earnings is +/-13 or roughly 143-117. Traders have been selling calls and buying puts which may lead to a larger than expected move. NVDA has closed above the expected move 4/12 reports but inside the last 2. The difference is that previously traders were positioned long calls into the event. Spread trades or butterflies are suggested due to the high IV (165%) which will crush post the report.