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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.65% Currencies: USA$ -.42%, CAD +0.23% YEN+0.80%, BTC/USD -0.2% Vix: 17.5

·       News: USA: ADP jobs 183k vs 148k; ISM Services PMI 10ET EUR: PPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.5% China: Caixin Services PMI 51 vs 52.3
Stocks: AMD -9.8%, GOOGL-7.5%, CMG-5.9%, MDLZ-4.2%, MTCH-6%, DIS-1.2%, CPRI-7.7%, UBER-6%, FMC-26%, ENPH+1.6%, MAT+12.3%, JCI+9% EPS 
Overview: SPY 599.9 Resistance 600 601 605 Support 597 595; QQQ 521 Resistance 522 523 524 525 530 Support 520 515. USA indices are lower led by QQQ due to pullbacks in GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, TSLA. GOOGL cloud revenue disappointed which is weighing on AMZN with earnings Thurs. AAPL is affected by China probing app source policies. AMD is lower on a data center miss. NVDA and AVGO are supporting QQQ, potentially higher as GOOGL increased their capex. China names are lower as services PMI lower than expected but still indicating expansion. Macro factors are positive with yields, US$ and oil lower. This can be forecasting a slowdown and potentially a flow out of the USA.  SPX6000 remains a key level to hold for bulls. USA Services PMI at 10ET may be market moving as services is the majority of the economy. ADP jobs data was better than expected but the non-farm payroll is what really moves markets. Starting to see layoffs increasing anecdotally from large companies with WDAY the latest. Gold is making new highs and getting technically stretched but not a positive signal for the equity markets.

Expected Move: SPX (6082-5993) SPY (606.2-597) QQQ (530-519) IWM (229-225)

Stocks to watch NVDA, MAT, JCI, AVGO, GOOGL, AMD, CMG, UBER  Speculative TEM, SOUN, OSCR
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, MSOS, TLT, GDX, GLD, EFA, XLU, XLF, KWEB, XLC, FXI, UNG, USO, QQQ

S&P500 JCI, AVGO, ENPH, NVDA, LLY, FMC, AMD, GOOGL, UBER, CMG, AAPL, DIS, AMZN, SMCI, PLTR, TSLA
Other  MAT, GSK, NVO, TEM, BILI, KV, TEVA, SOUN, RKLB, OSCR, CPRI, LYFT, EQNR, LI, JD, LUNR, BABA, XPEV, STLA

Trade Idea: TLT

TLT is starting to breakout as yields and US$ fall. TLT has moved up sharply and at the top of the weekly expected move.TLT is extended so its a momentum trade for longs. The TLT call wall is 90 so above can have acceleration. Note that strength in TLT is usually not a positive for equity. Treasury rebalance is due today which can impact TLT so take care.