Swing Trade Idea – February 6, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -.24% Currencies: USA$ +.43% CAD -0.23% YEN+0.00% BTC/USD +1% Vix: 16.7
· News: USA:
Job cuts increasing m/m but lower y/y; UE claims 830ET; FOMC Waller 14ET UK:
25bps cut CDN: PMI 10ET
Stocks: ARM-3.9%, ING-2.3%, VKTX -5%, RBLX-21%, QCOM-4%, F -5.3%, SWS-28%,
BMY-6%, HON-2.9%, TPR+17%, YUM+2.9%, RL+12% EPS
Overview: SPY 605.6 Expected move 3.4 Resistance 607.8 610 Support 605
603 600; QQQ 527 Expected move 4.3 Resistance 530 531 Support 526 525 523. USA
indices flattish premarket with IWM leading and QQQ lagging. Macro slightly
negative with US$ and yields higher. QCOM, SWKS, ARM lower is negative for
semis; however the hedgies are continuing the push NVDA and AVGO to frustrate
the bears and may continue today. MAG7 are mixed with TSLA GOOGL AAPL
continuing to weaken with META, NVDA, AVGO the anchormen supporting the index.
AMZN reports after the close and is currently bid premarket. China names are
bouncing with EVs leading. The top sexy space and AI fave names are up
premarket with ASTS, SOUN, TEM, LUNR bid again. High flying game company RBLX
was bludgeoned on earnings and one to watch for bounce or continuation. TPR,
RL, PM, HSY have all moved well above the expected move, look for continuation
or pullback.
Expected Move SPX (6095-6028) SPY (607.6-600.8) QQQ (531-522) IWM (231-227.7)
Stocks to watch NVDA, AVGO, AMZN, TSLA, SWKS, QCOM, HON, AAPL Speculative
TEM,
SOUN, RBLX
Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, KWEB, FXI, IBIT, ARKG, XLP, $USD, XLF, XME, ARKK, SLV,
TLT, SMH
S&P500 TPR, PM,
YUM, SMCI, NVDA, AVGO, SWKS, F, BMY, QCOM, HON, TSLA, IP
Other HSAI, KC, MT, LI, XPEV, BILI, ZM, GFI, BUD, CLSK, BHP, ASTS, LUNR,
SOUN, RIOT, COIN, JD, BABA, TEM, FORM, RBLX, SYM, VKTX, ARM, HIMS
Trade Idea: AMZN
AMZN reports after the close. Expected move is +/-13 into the end of week. Concern is AWS growth and impact of USA regulation of shipments from China. Call wall 250 but potential to run above. Put wall 215. Inexpensive strategy to trade directionally are butterflies. Will provide strikes to option room members.
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