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  • Swing Trade Idea – February 6, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.24% Currencies: USA$ +.43% CAD -0.23% YEN+0.00% BTC/USD +1%  Vix: 16.7

    ·       News: USA: Job cuts increasing m/m but lower y/y; UE claims 830ET; FOMC Waller 14ET UK: 25bps cut CDN: PMI 10ET
    Stocks:
    ARM-3.9%, ING-2.3%, VKTX -5%, RBLX-21%, QCOM-4%, F -5.3%, SWS-28%, BMY-6%, HON-2.9%, TPR+17%, YUM+2.9%, RL+12%  EPS 
    Overview: SPY 605.6 Expected move 3.4 Resistance 607.8 610 Support 605 603 600; QQQ 527 Expected move 4.3 Resistance 530 531 Support 526 525 523. USA indices flattish premarket with IWM leading and QQQ lagging. Macro slightly negative with US$ and yields higher. QCOM, SWKS, ARM lower is negative for semis; however the hedgies are continuing the push NVDA and AVGO to frustrate the bears and may continue today. MAG7 are mixed with TSLA GOOGL AAPL continuing to weaken with META, NVDA, AVGO the anchormen supporting the index. AMZN reports after the close and is currently bid premarket. China names are bouncing with EVs leading. The top sexy space and AI fave names are up premarket with ASTS, SOUN, TEM, LUNR bid again. High flying game company RBLX was bludgeoned on earnings and one to watch for bounce or continuation. TPR, RL, PM, HSY have all moved well above the expected move, look for continuation or pullback.

    Expected Move SPX (6095-6028) SPY (607.6-600.8) QQQ (531-522) IWM (231-227.7)

    Stocks to watch
    NVDA, AVGO, AMZN, TSLA, SWKS, QCOM, HON, AAPL Speculative TEM, SOUN, RBLX
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
     MSOS, KWEB, FXI, IBIT, ARKG, XLP, $USD, XLF,  XME, ARKK, SLV, TLT, SMH

    S&P500 TPR, PM, YUM, SMCI, NVDA, AVGO, SWKS, F, BMY, QCOM, HON, TSLA, IP
    Other HSAI, KC, MT, LI, XPEV, BILI, ZM, GFI, BUD, CLSK, BHP, ASTS, LUNR, SOUN, RIOT, COIN, JD, BABA, TEM, FORM, RBLX, SYM, VKTX, ARM, HIMS



    Trade Idea: AMZN

    AMZN reports after the close. Expected move is +/-13 into the end of week. Concern is AWS growth and impact of USA regulation of shipments from China. Call wall 250 but potential to run above. Put wall 215. Inexpensive strategy to trade directionally are butterflies. Will provide strikes to option room members.

     

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