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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.08% Currencies: USA$ +.13% CAD -0.18% YEN-.46% BTC/USD +.78% Vix: 16.55

·       News: USA: Nonfarm payrolls 830ET; Consumer sentiment 10ET CDN: Employment report 830ET
Stocks: AMZN -2.85%, BILL-29%, SKX-11%, MCHP-5.9%, ELF-25%, NET+10%, PINS+21%, AFRM+13%, TTWO+8.6%, FTNT+5%, DOCS+23%, BYD+2%, EXPE+11% EPS 
Overview: SPY 605.9 Expected move 4.7 Resistance 607.7 610 Support 605 603 600; QQQ 529 Expected move 5.8 Resistance 530 535 Support 528 525 521.  ** Data 830ET: USA Nonfarm payroll 143k vs 175k UE rate 4% vs 4.1%. 2024 revised lower by 589K; CDN jobs 76k vs 25k. Equity market reaction was limited but yields rose likely as the UE rate fell and average earnings rose which may keep Fed from cutting. MAG7 are mixed with AMZN lower on weaker guidance and TSLA lower on lower China sales. NVDA is flat but should watch today as there is large open interest at 130 which is an upside target but with Opex today, failure to reach will lead to afternoon selling. NET, AFRM, PINS, TTWO, EXPE have moved greater than the expected move and hence candidates for continuation higher. ELF, BILL, SKX are candidates for continuation lower or bounces on short covering. China stocks are higher with the EV names continuing to be strong along with BABA that was rumored (denied) of investment in DeepSeek. Implied volatility is elevated into the jobs print and the unwind can provide a lift to the market with caveat that it’s a mechanical process that may not last past the morning and SPY 605, QQQ 528  IWM 228 are key levels to hold for bulls.

Expected Move: SPX (6126-6032), SPY (610-601), QQQ (535-523), IWM (231-223.6)

Stocks to watch DOCS, AFRM, META, FTNT, TSLA, AMZN, MCHP Speculative DOCS, LI, BILL
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, IBIT, ETHE, USO, ARKK, QTUM, UNG, IGV, GDX,   XLY, QQQ

S&P500 EXPE, TTWO, MPWR, FTNT, PANW, FCX, SMCI, TPR, PLTR, MCHP, AMZN, FTV
Other DOCS, PINS, AFRM, LEU, NET, ROAD, CLSK, LI, GDS, FUTU, UPST, BILI, BABA, AZPN, BILL, ELF, NBIX, SKX, AMSC, ILMN, GH, DNB

Trade Idea: AMZN

AMZN is lower post earnings on weaker guidance but results were not as bad as expected. It is bouncing premarket and the analysts are increasing the price estimates(they have a lot of clients to protect LOL!). Price currently 231.4 which is between 2 major option strikes. While above 230 can look for 235 and higher for a bounce and below 230 look for 225 which was the overnight low. Typically there is a short covering bounce at the open and then look for continuation or reversal