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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.27% Currencies: USA$ -.01%, CAD -.08%, YEN-.07%, BTC/USD 0% Vix: 19.5

·       News: USA: FOMC Williams 9:05 CAD: Retail sales 

·       Stocks: FDX-8%, MU-3%, LEN-3.9%, QUBT-10.7%, CCL-1.46% EPS
Overview: SPY 562.5 Expected move 5.1 Resistance 565 570 Support 560 559 550; QQQ 477.7 Expected move 5.9 Resistance 480 485 Support 475 473. Global indices are lower premarket ahead of the record S&P AM settlement which will be followed at the close by a record PM settlement.   MAG7 have not made large moves premarket but AAPL, NVDA are the weakest and META the strongest. With Opex today may have some large intraday moves with MAG7 put heavy so potential for upside moves as puts close. FDX and LEN forecasts were weak which speaks to slower global economy and pressure in the USA housing market which is an important segment. MU earnings and forecast were good and upbeat for the AI deployment but stock has pulled back likely due to being very call heavy into the print and is a name to watch for a bounce or continuation lower. QUBT in the quantum space large drop on earnings has fallen through the put wall with potential for continuation and can weigh on other names like IONQ RGTI. US$ has been moving higher which is typically negative for foreign stocks and commodities and and premarket the combo of bonds, US$, Yen, Vix higher is a typical risk-off signal.
USA indices are continuing to fall with SPY below 560 (put wall) potential to test bottom of expected move and 555 below. QQQ is testing 475 which is a major level with expected move low 473 and 470 potential levels below. SPX 5600 and 5565 are major levels below. The SPX is moving with the AM settlement and expect once the market opens the 0DTE will be back and can take it in either direction. Simple level to watch for bull/bear is SPY560, SPX5600.
 

Expected Move SPX (5714-5612), SPY (569-559), QQQ (485-473), IWM (207.5-202.5)

Stocks to watch TLT, FDX, LEN, MU, AAPL Speculative QUBT
Pre-800ET
Indices TLT, UNG, FXI, KWEB, GDX, SLV, SMH, SPY, USO, IWM, IYT

S&P500 JBL, FCX, ACN, MCHP, ENPH, INTC, AVGO
Other MUFG, GME, SONY, SMCI, FDX, NKE, XPEV, MU, MNSO, NVO, JD, IONQ, KC, HOOD, PDD, BABA, TSM, CCL

Trade Idea: SPY

SPY pulling back premarket with large option expiration today. Put wall is 560 so bearish below but level where a move above can lead to a bounce. Bottom of daily expected move is 558.7 so more bearish below. JPM collar put position roughly at 555 should be support and a level for a bounce and quite negative below that level. AM settled SPX options expire at the open so potential for a trend change then. PM settled options expire at the end of the day so potential volatility post 14ET. Good luck today and keep your seat belt tightened!