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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.6% Currencies: USA$ -.01%, CAD +.04%, YEN-.4%,  BTC/USD +4%, Vix: 18.7

·       News: USA: PMI 9:45ET; FOMC speakers EUR: mfg PMI improving but still declining; service PMI weaker than expected but mild expansion  JP: mfg PMI weaker than expected and declining 

·       Stocks: MSTR+4.7% Issuing preferred stock
Overview: SPY 571.2 Expected move 4.6 Resistance 573.5 Support 570 568 565; QQQ 487.9 Expected move 5.2 Resistance 490 Support 485 480.  USA futures have spiked overnight lifting indices above the daily expected move and squeezing the shorts. SPX premarket is indicating short calls at 5740-5750 which can likely act as resistance but always a possibility to squeeze above. SPX 5700 is the level to watch on a pullback. Should act as support but below there is a potential for a sharp drop as stability is not high. Market is fixated on tariff impact and the catalyst for the short squeeze is stories that the tariffs would be less severe. These are stories and not official statements hence a contrary tweet can reverse. IMO the market has been setup for a technical bounce so the move has been highly anticipated. MAG7 are all higher led by TSLA META and AMZN. Challenge today is that most names are at target based on option positioning. There is potential for continuation but odds favor pullback and retest. Setup premarket is risk-on which benefits high short interest and lower quality stocks. Remains whether the short squeeze can continue into the close or whether sellers use it as an opportunity to exit or rehedge. USA PMI will be released at 945ET and should be market moving. Narrative is that the USA economy is slowing, supported by FOMC meeting last week and can be reinforced or refuted based on the data. Expectation is for both to be in expansion with mfg weaker than prior print and services stronger.

Expected Move  SPX (5713-5621), SPY (568.6-559.4), QQQ (486-475.6), IWM (207-201)

Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, MSTR, TLT Speculative AZEK, KC, TEM, ZIM, OKLO, IONQ
Pre-800ET
Indices IBIT, TSLA, META, COPX, IGV, NVDA, AMZN, ARKW, XLK, IWM,   VIX, TLT, EFA

S&P500 TSLA, CCL, PLTR, AMD, FCX, META, BA, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, UBER, INTC, NUE, F, BAC, SMCI
Other AZEK, KC, TEM, ZIM, OKLO, IONQ, MSTR, HIMS, MARA, COIN, APP, ASTS, GFI, NVO, AZN, GSK

Trade Idea: TSLA

USA indices have been popped premarket and WSJ story that tariffs wont be as severe as first thought. Hence premarket the casino is open and TSLA in play. TSLA has been declining due to sales slowing and negative reaction to Elon’s politics but the stock can lift on puts closing and shorts covering.  260 is a major level and the expected high for the day. A move above will suggest a squeeze to 262.5+. Pullbacks > 255 may be buyable for a move to 260. Below 255 look for 250 and lower. Note the stock is in a downtrend, hence traders will likely be looking to short bounces.