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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.5% Currencies: USA$ -.2%, CAD +.21%, YEN+.27%,  BTC/USD -1%  Vix: 18

·       Stocks: KBH-5.8%, OKLO-6% EPS DJT+10.4% and Crypto.com will offer “Made in USA ETFs”; TSLA+1.9% sales -47% in Eurozone IMO clearly showing that for now fundies are irrelevant

·       News:  USA: Consumer confidence, new home sales, Richmond mfg Index 10ET
Overview: SPY 575.5 Expected move 3.8 Resistance 577.8 580 Support 573 570; QQQ 491.9 Expected move 4.2 Resistance 495 494 495 Support 490 489. USA indices dropped overnight but in NY premarket the algos are pumping the Nasi. MAG7 are positive ex-NVDA and led by TSLA which was up 10% Monday and higher premarket inspite of very negative sales data from Europe. Animal spirits or short covering are still active with NET+6.3% CRWD+2%. CVNA+5.8% on upgrades and MBLY+14.5% on a report that working with VW. USA indices are at the top or higher than the weekly expected move as are AMZN, TSLA and META. IMO move is driven by closing of put positions with media attaching to stories that the tariffs will be less disruptive. Usually weekly expected moves act as limits however if indices continue to rise, CTAs can flip from short and continue to squeeze it higher. Caveat on the chase is indices are short term extended and vulnerable to news or actual statements from the WH versus Bloomberg articles. KBH earnings are a negative for the housing sector and the 10y rising is a further negative. 10y yields are turning bullish which is not positive for housing and in theory not positive for small caps which are lagging. US$ is pulling back premarket which is providing a lift to metals but China is moving lower, potentially due to profit taking or rotation back into the beloved MAG7/AI names.

Expected Move SPX (5805-5730), SPY (577.8-570.3), QQQ (494.9-486.4), IWM (210.8-207)

Stocks to watch TSLA, META, FCX, SHEL, CVNA, TLT, KBH, KWEB  Speculative MBLY, DJT, NET
Pre-800ET
Indices SLV, UNG, GDX, FEZ, EFA, USO, XLE, XLF, KWEB, ETHE, IBIT, TLT, FXI

S&P500 CRWD, TSLA, FCX, NEM, IP, DAL, AEP, MO
Other MBLY, DJT, CVNA, NET, ING, TTD, SHEL, UBS, CRWD, GSK, BP, EQNR, TSLA, FCX, KBH, OKLO, XPEV, GDS, QFIN, BILI, ALLY, CNM, JD, NNE, AEP

Trade Idea: NET

NET has gapped higher on an upgrade. Profitless tech name which is very popular when the factor in favor. Call heavy above 130 so above that level can continue to run as long as shorts cover. NET is above the weekly expected move hence extended hence pullback or consolidation possible in the short term