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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.75% Currencies: USA$ -.17%, CAD +.06%, YEN-.34%, BTC/USD -1.2%, Vix: 18.9

·       Stocks: WOOF+4.5%, WGO+4.3%, VRNT-10% EPS Impact of auto tariffs GM-6%, F+1.75%, HMC-1.2%, TM-2.2%, TT-0.02%, STLA-1.4%
News: USA: GDP, UE claims 830ET USA imposed tariffs on imported autos  

·       Overview: SPY 568.2 Expected move 4.6 Resistance 570 572 573.2 Support 568 565; QQQ 483.3 Expected move 5.1 Resistance 485 487 490 Support 480. USA indices consolidating after Wed drop with SPY and QQQ poised above the Sun futures gap. Tariffs of 25% on imported autos that do not meet the USMCA agreement startled the market in general and are affecting auto stocks to different degrees which I assume reflects the degree of compliance. Canada is applying counter tariffs and Europe is discussing but hasn’t reacted yet. MAG7 are being led to the downside by NVDA which is a continuation of Wed with China restrictions, tariffs and unwind of crowded trades factors. META lower potentially on news that WH TikTok may continue. Bonds are lower again with 10y yield continuing to rise but approaching a key pivot level of 4.4. Higher yields is typically a negative for bond proxies like utes and staples. Gold and silver are strong with gold making new highs potentially as a fear trade. *** GDP Q/Q 2.4% vs 2.3%; GDP price index 2.3% vs 2.4%; UE claims 224k vs 225k; Continuing jobless claims 1.86M vs 1.886 Reaction to data 10Y small pullback, US$ lower, limited positive reaction to equities. Indices are negative gamma which means moves intraday can large. SPY is currently above the Sunday night gap with risk of a gap fill lower to 565 (<568 is a flag). SPY 570 is the vol trigger and above can be a potential long trade but may act as resistance. NVDA is just above 110 large put wall which can act as support or initiate another wave lower. NVDA and TSLA had huge volume Wed as did the leveraged ETFs associated and hence has an outsized impact on QQQ and SPY. Latest NVDA news is a shortage in China of the H20 chips one of the few allowed to be sold in China.

Expected Move SPX (5758-5666), SPY (573.2-564), QQQ (489.5-479.3), IWM (207.8-203.4)

Stocks to watch GDX, TSLA, F, BYDDY, BABA, NVDA, AMD, GM   Speculative NFE, VRT
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, SLV, KWEB, GLD, ETHE, FXI, EWC, SMH, ARKK, UNG, UUP, XLK, IGV

S&P500 NEM, TSLA, GM, AMD, VST, NVDA, SW, ABNB, SMCI
Other SLNO, AGRO, NFE, BEKE, LX, CAVA, YDDY, BILI, KGC, GOLD, CAR, VRT, SNX, GME, GM, FRO, JEF, AMD, UBS

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA has been a weapon of mass destruction to the large cap indices. Over owned stock and facing headwinds with China exports restrictions from USA and now China restrictions from China. Latest news is a shortage of devices in China. There is a large option position at 110 that may act as support to the downside or cause acceleration lower if breached. Premarket NVDA 112 is above that level. NVDA options size is every 5 so below 110 look for 105 and 100 and on an up move look for 115 and 120. ATR is 5.8 so can just play the range. The leveraged ETFs are traded in size and frequently result in late day moves as these ETFs rebalance.