Swing Trade Idea – March 28, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China,
Hong Kong Asia – Slight negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.59% Currencies: USA$ +.13%, CAD -.01%, YEN+.2%, BTC/USD -2% Vix: 19.4
·
Stocks: LULU-11% EPS
News: USA: PCE 830ET; UofM Consumer Confidence 10ET CDN:
GDP 830ET JP: CPI 2.4% vs 2.2%
·
Overview: SPY 566.2 Expected move 4.8 Resistance 567 569 570 572 Support
565 562; QQQ 480.6 Expected move 5.3 Resistance 484 485 487 Support 480
476.7. ** PCE: inline but core higher than expected, Consumer spending
0.4% vs 0.5%, Person income 0.8% vs 0.4%. Initial reaction was equity lower and
TLT higher *** SPY is lower since the European open and 465 is the bull/bear
level to watch. MAG7 are generally lower ex-TSLA and NVDA. TSLA was manipulated
higher Thurs before dumping so watch today. LULU moved below the expected move
on weaker than expected guidance, can weigh on discretionary retail. Indices
are negative gamma which leads to large moves. SPX is not well support <
5700 with potential moves to 5650 and 5600. Volume has been light with 0DTE in
control with TSLA and NVDA main targets but cannot discount the other MAG7.
Consumer confidence at 10ET may be market moving. Gold, silver and miners
continue to be bid despite being technically stretched. China names are pulling
back after a strong day Thurs. Market is focused on the April 2 tariff date and
can tread water unless there are tariff related news tweets. Movers: WRB
investment by Mitsui Sumitomo; RKLB selected for US Space Force Contract;
APP bouncing after Thurs drop on short report
Expected
Move SPX (5741-5646), SPY (572-562), QQQ (487-476), IWM (207-202)
Stocks to watch TSLA, TLT, GDX, LULU, AAPL, Speculative APP, RKLB,
GFI, MSTR
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, TLT, GLD, USO, SLV, ETHE, IBIT, KWEB, EFA, XLK, FEZ, QQQ
S&P500 WRB, SMCI,
TSLA, LULU
Other RKLB, APP, GFI, X, MSTR, XPEV, STLA, JD, ORCL, BABA
Trade Idea: MP
MP is a USA based rare earth metal company. China, Russia and Africa are the main sources of these metals which are critical for semiconductors. USA is negotiating with Ukraine for these metals so a strategic resource. Option market is positioned bullishly with calls at 30 and 35 with a large position at 25 which can be used as support. One can use further dips to enter with stock or sell puts to get long taking advantage of the volatility. Leaps are another method, selling shorted dated calls to reduce the cost basis.
