.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.72% Currencies: USA$ +.01% CAD -.28% YEN+.35%  BTC/USD -2% Vix: 19.4

·       Stocks: CORT+93% Positive drug results; COOP+24% acquired by RKT
News: USA: Chicago PMI 945ET China: PMI data slightly better than expected Japan: Industrial production improving

·       Overview: SPY 549.4 Expected move 6.8 Resistance 555 558 560 Support 548 545; QQQ 462 Expected move 7 Resistance 465 470 475 Support 462 460. Global indices are lower premarket ahead of Aug 2 tariff decision and payroll report this week. Big event today is the rolling of the JPM collared ETF position. It’s impactful as the position includes 40k 5565 SPX puts. These puts are hedged with short futures and with expiration today and close to the money, there will be large hedging flows with market makers shorting more into drops and buying into pops. The position will be rolled to June today and when that happens the market maker will be reducing the short position substantially which will reduce the negative pressure on the market which can lead to a move higher on the roll. Premarket SPY touched the bottom of the expected move and would watch the 550 level as a reference level. MAG7 are lower led by TSLA which is reporting deliveries this week and NVDA which is a major investor in Coreweave, which had a weak IPO launch.  Semiconductors in general are weak as weakness in NVDA continues to infect the sector. Vix futures are inverted (backwardated) indicating short term hedging which is a high risk warning. Sensible with tariffs and jobs report this week. The JPM roll reducing negative gamma and elevated vol is a set-up for a move higher in the event the tariff announcement is not worse than expected but risk a negative surprise can lead to a downdraft. Premarket, classic risk-off setup with bonds, gold, yen positive and staples slightly positive and speculative popular names like PLTR, SMCI, AMD lower. Keep an eye for a reversal intraday as the collar reverses. It usually occurs in the afternoon but given the proximity to price, they may roll earlier to provide stability to the market.

Expected Move SPX (5649-5512), SPY (562-549), QQQ (476-462), IWM (203-197)

Stocks to watch TLT, GDX, TSLA, NVDA, MSTR Speculative APP, RKLB, GFI, MSTR
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, GDX, GLD, TLT, USO, SLV, XLP, ARKK, ETHE, ARKG, XBI, SMH, IBIT, FEZ, IGV, XLK, XLY

S&P500 NEM, MRNA, PLTR, SMCI, TSLA, NVDA, CCL, MU, NCLH, AMD, AVGO, INTC, UBER, FCX
Other CORT, COOP, EH, HMY, XPEV, HUT, GOLD, MRNA, OKLO, IONQ, PLTR, HOOD, HIMS, SMCI, TSLA, TEM, VRT, SOFI, RKLB

Trade Idea: SPY

JPM collared ETF is rolling today which will roll out a 40k 5565 long put position which has been leading to market makers having a large short futures position and hence large negative gamma position. Premarket SPY is above 550 (put wall) which is a good bull/bear level. Potential to move lower in the morning with 548-545 support but when the position starts to roll, looking for a move higher with target 560-565. It is end of quarter and target dated funds are expected to be mechanically buying equity to rebalance, which can also provide support. But market is far from stable hence not taking anything for granted and a reason to watch the SPY 550 level.