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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative   global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.4% Currencies: USA$ -.1%, CAD -.24%, YEN+0.72%,  BTC/USD+0.8% Vix: 21.5

·       News: USA: Challenger job cuts, UE claims 830ET EUR: Rate decision 25bps cut expected

·       Stocks: MRVL-16%, MDB-17%, M-3.5%, JD+6.8%, VEEV+5.5%, ZS+3.3%  EPS 
Overview: SPY 575.5  Expected move 6.4 Resistance 580 585 Support 575 574 570; QQQ 493.5 Expected move 7.1 Resistance 500 509 Support 495 490. USA indices are falling premarket and are already below the daily expected move hence potential bounce for a bounce or a larger move lower. Vix term structure is inverted indicating institutions are hedging with short-term Vix futures. Challenger job cuts increased 103% y/y adding fuel to the USA economy slowing narrative but UE claims were less than expected. MRVL fell more than the expected move on lower guidance which is impacting other semis. Confluence of negative news: MSFT scaling back commitments to Coreweave and China announcing another AI model is weighing on the previously hot AI sector. China name JD positive earnings coupled with China stimulus continues to provide catalyst for China stocks. MDB miss and drop may impact other cloud companies with ZS moving higher a bright spot. MAG7 are negative led by NVDA which is a supplier and investor in Coreweave. TSLA downgraded. SPX 5775 key support level
Expected Move  SPX (5907-5779), SPY (590-577), QQQ (509-495), IWM (211-205)

Stocks to watch JD, BABA, KWEB, MRVL, NVDA, TSLA, AMD  Speculative SMCI, ARKK
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, ETHE, USO, SMH, MSOS, ARKK, ARKG, QTUM, XLK, ARKQ, QQQ, XBI, IWM, XLY, SPY, IGV

S&P500 SMCI, AVGO, MRNA, NVDA, PLTR, TSLA, MU, AMD, AMZN, INTC, SW, MSFT, META, UBER, CRM, UAL
Other ALGM, JD, KC, PDD, BILI, BABA, XPEV, BIDU, FUTU, MDB, MRVL, HIMS, NBIS, SMR, TEM, SOUN, OKLO, SWTX, RKLB, HOOD, LUNR, M, ASTS, SOFI, IONQ, NVO

Trade Idea: SMH

Not a trade idea but a warning. SMH is now at the AVWAP anchored to Nov 2023 lows. MRVL poor forecast, continued news that MSFT is canceling data center projects and today backtracking on a Coreweave contract, new AI LLM apps from China are taking the air out of the AI semi craze that propelled this sector which has historically been very cyclical. NVDA is an investor in Coreweave which sell NVDA based systems, hence loss of Coreweave biz is double negative. Also there are allegations of NVDA using Singapore to get around USA sanctions to China. Bloom is coming off the rose. Would watch the Sept lows 214 and Aug lows of 200. Bounces always occur in downtrends hence not advocating immediate shorts but noting there is a long way down if the rose continues to wilt.