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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.09% Currencies: USA$-.15% CAD +.09% YEN+.08%  BTC/USD -.33%  Vix: 21.6

·       Stocks: TSLA-2.65% deliveries due today NCNO-34% EPS NMAX-18%  & CRWV -1%  recent IPOs wild movers
News: USA: ADP Jobs 830ET; Tariff Announcement 15ET  

·       Overview: SPY 557.3 Expected move 5.4 Resistance 558 560 566 Support 555 553; QQQ 468.4 Expected move 5.8 Resistance 470 475 478 Support 467 465. Global indices lower ahead of ADP jobs report which will be released premarket. All eyes are on the tariff news which is either being released at 15 or 16ET. Vol is elevated ahead of the release which can result in 3 potential outcomes: Bearish with SPX 5500 tested which is a high put level and a break bringing 5400 into play; Bullish where the collapse of vol and can lead to a strong bounce to SPX 5950; Neutral which would result from a pushout and due to short term hedging can lead to a vol drop and a bounce but not a strong one. Best traded with spreads or butterfly structures due to high IV.  *** ADP Jobs 150k vs 77k Reaction: Equity and 10y yields lower . SPY fell to 555 QQQ to 467 *** MAG7 are all down led by TSLA will release deliveries today which are expected to be weak. TSLA will move on the release of the deliveries. NVDA and semis have been weak on the uncertainty of tariffs. 0DTE SPX positioning indicates resistance at 5700 and support at 5500 with potential to chop around 5600 until the tariff data is released. With MAG7 weak there will likely be rotation into safe sectors like staples, utes and telecom. Gold and silver are strong premarket which potentially be positive for the miners however they can diverge. Recent IPOs are going nutty so if like to juggle knives NMAX and CRWV are 2 names.

Expected Move SPX (5687-5579), SPY (566-555), QQQ (478-467), IWM (203-106)

Stocks to watch GLD, SLV, TSLA, NVDA, PLTR  Speculative NCNO, NMAX, CRWV
Pre-800ET
Indices SLV, UNG, TLT, GLD, ETHE, ARKK, ARKG, XLY, SMH, QQQ, IWM, XLK

S&P500 TSLA, PLTR, SMCI, NVDA, AMZN, NCLH, CCL, META, MU, AMD, INTC, PARA
Other IONQ, NCNO, EWTX, DJT, HIMS, HUT, TSLA, PLTR, HOOD, SOFI, HMY, MARA, NVDA, AMZN, RIVN, NBIS, INTC 

Trade Idea:TSLA

TSLA is expected to move +/12 today with deliveries the catalyst. 250 is the key downside level with puts below. Mostly calls above so pullbacks > 250 can look for bullish bounces on pullback but < 250 look for 240 to 230. Expectations are for weak deliveries given recent news hence will be interesting to see what has been price in.