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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA. Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +1.1% Currencies: USA$-2% CAD +1.6% YEN+2.5%  BTC/USD -2.7% Vix: 23.3

·       Stocks: TSLA-2.65% deliveries due today NCNO-34% EPS NMAX-18%  & CRWV -1%  recent IPOs wild movers
News: USA: Job cuts 730ET; UE Claims 830ET; ISM Services 10ET; EUR: ISM Services better than expected 

·       Overview: SPY 545.8 at the bottom of the weekly expected move and below daily expected move. While SPX < 5500 (SPY 547.5) potential downside to 5400 (SPY 537.5). SPX5400 is in theory a strong support level based on current positioning. A bounce above 550 can lead to a strong bounce given the negative gamma towards 560/565. QQQ 456.2 is below the weekly expected move and below major put positions hence existing positioning lacks fuel to move lower however can be dragged lower due to the S&P or new puts added. 453.9 is the premarket low and 450 the Sept low which may be a support level. Macro reaction to tariffs is the 10y yield lower (bonds up) and US$ sharply lower. Precious metals are sharply lower with gold moving lower inspite of the lower dollar and lower yields. MAG7 are all lower with tariff concerns affecting products from China (AAPL) Taiwan (NVDA) and retail in general (AMZN). Retail names at the low end are most affected (DLTR -12% FIVE -19%). Vix futures are elevated but at 23.8 are below March high. This likely indicates that institutions already hedged or have been using short dated options. If the latter then may get respite by next week as options expire. Right now it appears that 5400 may be a short term low and may be an opportunity for short term trades with put credit spreads in high IV names are call spreads in others. IV is elevated and will fall if market bounces hence spreads are an idea.
 

Stocks to watch UNG,TLT, NKE, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, DLTR,  Speculative MSTR, MARA
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, TLT, USO, ARKK, XRT, SLV, IBIT, SMH, IWM, XLY, XLE, XLK, QQQ

S&P500  NKE, DELL, TGT, SMCI, AAPL, VST, CCL, MU, AVGO, AMZN TSLA, NVDA, PLTR, OXY, WMT, AMD META, UBER, BAC, BA, XOM, ORCL

Trade Idea: AAPL

AAPL lower on the tariff announcement at an interesting level. It is below most of the major puts but also entering a volume gap. Below 205 potential for 200 round number or 190 volume support. Potential bounce as puts cover with 220 resistance on a bounce.  AAPL is very correlated with the QQQ so can take queues from it.