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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 16, 2021

    Market View

    World markets are mixed with USA green, Europe red, Japan red, Hong Kong green, China red and Asia red. Yield curve steeper with long yields higher which is beneficial for financials and small caps and not for large cap tech. US dollar is slightly higher. Commodities are mixed with Aggs higher, precious metals lower and WTI oil lower. News: Retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment will be released premarket; INTC rumored to be in talks to buy GlobalFoundries which would give them a USA monopoly for semiconductor manufacturing; MRNA being added to the S&P500; and OPEC+ are potentially close to an agreement which would stabilize oil prices. Premarket set-up is for small caps and financials to lead but this may change by the open. The Meme/WSB stocks are bouncing in the premarket, this may be due to shorts covering prior to today’s option expiration.  S&P500 has been rising overnight and is above the 4350 large gamma level which should act as a support. 4400 is a large gamma level which should act as resistance. 10yr yield has been the catalyst for rotation between asset classes. Yields rose overnight but are potentially reversing. If yields drop, expect money to move into FAANGMT and out of financials and small caps. Converse is true. Next week there will be a 25% reduction in gamma which frees markets to make larger moves next week.

    Stocks to Watch

    Earnings ALIV ERIC SCHW STT

    Indices ICLN JETS XLE IBB ARKK XLF IWM MSOS ARKF TAN HACK SLV GDX TLT FXY KWEB EEM

    S&P500 LYV SLB CCL NCLH TXT DAL CMI RCL DVN APA AAL FLIR BWA BMY DOW NEM FTI  LYB BIIB KR NVDA MDLZ

    Movers MRNA AMC GMEMAXR SPCE LYV PAA WISH FGEN ERIC ALV DIDI RIO TME BMY ZTS

    WSB AMC GME WISH ARVL SOFI TLRY NIO NVDA

    Stock Idea; MRNA

    Moderna is being added to the S&P500 and stock ha reacted by moving to 285 in the premarket.  Stock is definitely extended by there is the potential to be driven higher. Thursday option buyers were buying out of the money calls at the 290 and 300 level and may continue today. One could look for pullback for a long but take some caution.  

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