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Swing Trade Idea – July 19, 2021

Market View

World markets are red with USA red, Europe red, Japan red, Hong Kong red, China green and Asia red. Yield curve flatter with long term rates higher. US dollar higher, Yen higher is a traditional risk-off signal. All USA indices are red with Nasdaq is a relative outperformer and Russell 2000 is lagging. Oil is lower on news that OPEC+ has agreed to increase production. Vix futures are not inverted so extreme risk-off is not currently signaled at present. Lead meme is Covid delta virus cases increasing which is threatening re-opening, especially ex-USA.  Add to that extended markets, tapering talk and weak seasonality and one has the ingredients for a soft market.  Market supporting flows (gamma, charm) are weak until Jul28 and market maker positioning can turn more negative below 4250.  SPY has gaps at 425.5 and 424 with support growing below 424 and particularly strong at 415. SPY 50sma at 422.97 is a level to watch for a bounce should price reach that level.  News: ROKU buying FIVN.

Stocks to Watch

Earnings AN; CAL miss;  TSCO beat;

Indices TLT Yen TAN XLE JETS ICLN ARKK IWM XLF KWEB SLV ARKF EWZ EEM ARKG XLB ARKQ PRNT GDX

S&P500 CLX GIS DXCM  CSX NOW MRO OXY NCLH CCL APA DVN UAL FANG AAL SLB HAL DAL FTI HES RCL

Movers NXRP FLOW AEHR FIVN WORK

Stock Idea; MRNA

PFE is a long idea on a weak day ahead of earnings Jul27. Logic is the Covid meme, which is better treated with mRNA vaccines and the likely need for booster shot. Weak market today and PFE is down. Thinking long above 40.1 with a tight stop. Other idea is ABT, which has virus test equipment.