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Swing Trade Idea – March 16, 2022

Market Setup

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia

•Commodities:  Precious metals, oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, palladium, zinc)

•Yields: higher yield curve slightly steeper

•News: Russia-Ukraine: Ongoing markets optimistic; China:  Govt vows to ensure capital market stability – short squeeze underway, Covid lockdowns affecting mfg;  USA: Retail Sales 830ET FOMC 1400ET; Canada: CPI 830ET

•Stocks: World indices are ripping on a combo of Chinese govt statement, Ukraine optimism and short covering. Leading sectors are China/EEM, airlines, spec tech.  Stocks very extended but a sampler of leaders: BIDU MLCO/LVS/WYNN  ASML SBUX UBS/DB/ING CENX MARA 

•Indices: SPY +1.6% QQQ 1.8% since 1ET, overbought and at the top of the expected move for week. SPX major gamma level 4300 likely resistance but potential to squeeze higher. Odds favor a pullback into 1400ET FOMC. Market is leaning long into FOMC, be to the opposite. SPY key levels support 425 420  Resistance 430 440. Vix futures term structure inverted so risk remains high

•Sectors: Leading: China internet, emerging markets, ARKK, semis, bitcoin Lagging silver, US$

•Stocks to watch: PDD BIDU MLCO/LVS SBUX CS AAPL CENX  NTR WPM Spec Names:  MARA S

Pre-830ET

Earnings S SMAR ARRY JBL LAC

Indices KWEB LIT EEM ARKK SMH SOXX /BTC XRT ARKF QQQ faangmt XLK XBI XLY XLB SLV UUP

S&P500 LVS WYNN MU EPAM LIN SBUX MGM ETSY NKE AMD NVDA DAL TSLA ALK PYPL LMT NOC GD RTX ICE HCA

Movers YY TCOM MU SBUX TSLA MSFT MDB DXC ADBE O MRNA NLOK

WSB BABA NIO RBLX GME AFRM NET PLUG PLTR AMD TSLA RIVN HOOD F BA

Trade Idea WMT
WMT broke out Mon over the 200sma and approaching a daily breakout.  MS raised the target price to 167 Mar16.  Call flow building at 150 and 155.  Retail sales today may impact the stock. COST is another name to watch.