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Swing Trade Idea – May 11, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bullish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower curve flatter

•News: USA: CPI 830ET Crude Inv. 1030ET; USA $40B to Ukraine $8.7B for weapons Europe: Lagarde China: Slowing Covid cases;  CPI Y-Y 2.1% vs 1.8% PPI Y-Y 8% vs 7.8% Bitcoin: Stablecoin instability continues

•Stocks: COIN -15% miss; U -29% guidance-; APP -8.5% guidance- ; TDD -7% guidance miss; RBLX -22% miss; GFS beat sold out 2022 2023; EA  beat; ELY beat; PLBY beat;  SWCH +8.6% taken private

•Macro: Ahead of CPI print markets are front running a lessening of inflation and a reopening of China (which has not happened). Paradoxically commodities are moving higher which is in line with China’s reopening but not with inflation dropping. US$ and yields are driving the market hence the reaction to SPI print are key.

•Indices: USA indices in a broad breadth bounce since 4ET with the characteristics of a short squeeze. SPY between key 400 and 405 QQQ at 305 gamma level with 300 as the key support level. SPY 400 and QQQ 300 are very important levels. Look for gamma levels to act as support and resistance. VIX futures are back in inversion indicating a high risk.  2.0% move based on volatility.  Potential today for a violent short squeeze if the pre-market pop is not sold off. Potential for large move on CPI print. Spy, QQQ Opex at EOD can lead to sharp moves into close

•Stocks to watch: JD DVN FCX MOS U COIN Spec Names: DNUT DINO ARKK

Pre-800ET

Earnings DNUT EA ELY GFS GO ICL OXY WYNN COIN U OLPX TTD WEN

Indices KWEB SLV XBI GDX XLE XOP DBC SMH LIT QQQ ICLN XLK IWM

S&P500 MRO FCX EA RCL MOS CCL DVN NCLH APA SLB FTNT NVDA COP GLW WRK

Movers DM GSM ICL SOFI GME PTON CCJ KGC PLNT BEKE TSLA U COIN OLPX RBLX AVYA UPST AZN

WSB BABA NIO GME PLUG CCJ NVDA NET RBLX

Trade Idea: COIN
COIN big earnings miss with lower trading volume. Issues with stable coin and bitcoin weakness are negatives for Coinbase. Premarket low $58.12 can be used for a short entry or bounce to 64 that fails. No volume support below but 55 puts are potential support.