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Swing Trade Idea – May 25, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Bearish  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower and flatter

•Macro: Higher US$ weighing on commodities and equities. Lower yields and higher US$ is risk-off set-up.

•News: USA: Durable goods 8:30ET Japan: Kuroda 7:05ET FED: FOMC minutes 14ET, Brainard 12:15ET Expectations are for 50bps raises next 2 meetings and then slowing. Europe: Lagarde calling for only gradual rate increases – Euro lower

•Stocks: DKS -13% -guidance (ASO sympathy); WEN +7% Pelz takeover rumor; INTU –guidance; JWN EPS miss, $500M buyback +guidance; TOL beat; BNS beat and div raise; BMO small beat div raise;

•Indices: Negative global equity set-up with USA indices moving lower into the open. SPY below key 395 and above key support at 390. QQQ below 290 gamma level and just above key 285 level. VIX futures partially uninverted and < 30 but close to inversion. SPY 1.8% move based on volatility.  Watch for indices to react to major gamma levels, likely chop until FED minutes are released but Brainard may move markets. General set-up is bearish with potential for sharp drop if gamma support is broken

•Stocks to watch: NTES FANG SBLK BBY TSLA ARKK  Spec Names: WEN JWEN ASO

Pre-800ET

Earnings A INTU JWN QFIN SBLK TOL URBN BNS DKS

Indices /btc KWEB TLT XLE MSOS XOP SLV GDX EFA ARKK SMH QQQ GLD QQQ euro

S&P500 INTU FANG OXY APA BBY MRNA LIN TSLA CCL FCX PYPL AAPL AMD

IWM SPWR EBS AMC M AEO M AEO SBRA BTU COOP

WSB AMC BABA NIO TSLA AMD PLUG

Trade Idea: FL Short
DKS poor guidance is weighing on many in the sport/leisure retail space. FL is a potential short idea. Premarket low 28.85 with targets 28 and 26. Other candidates: LULU, UAA, SKX, NKE, DKS. Risk is FOMC minutes which have potential to cause a general market bounce