.

Swing Trade Idea – July 01, 2022

Market Setup

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields lower and flatter;

•US$ Higher: YEN+  Euro- GBP – CAD – Swissie –

•News: USA: ISM MFG 10ET Europe: CPI 8.6% vs 8.5%, MFG PMI 52.1 vs 52 China: Caixin PMI 51.7 vs 50.2

Stocks: MU beat but sharply lower forecast. Semis weak after MU forecast.  SNA gap up no news NIO strong deliveries FDX downgrade

•General: Leading: bitcoin, XLE, XOP, AGG Lagging: SMH, GDX, EWZ, SOXX, EFA, GLD, QQQ

•Indices: USA pulled back overnight to Thurs lows and currently above 375 gamma level with 370 support Resistance  380 385 390. QQQ below 280 large gamma level with support at 275 and 270  resistance 280 285 290.  VIX term structure uninverted but high at 29.2,  1.8% move expected. Bearish setup with US$ strength, oil higher and weak global equity markets.  Need to be agile as first of month flows are usually positive; however trend is lower. PMI data at 10ET will be market moving so caution advised at that time.

• Stocks to watch  MU TSM AMD FCX FDX OXY DAL NIO TSLA Spec Names: SNA

Pre-800ET

Earnings MU

Indices /btc XLE XOP JETS DBC AGG SMH GDX EFA GLD SOXX XLB HYG QQQ IWM XLK

S&P500 DAL OXY EOG DVN APA MU WDC FCX FDX HBAN AMAT NVDA NEM KLAC AMD QCOM

IWM CYTK AR OVV ESTE  DOC AA M

WSB NIO NVDA AMD 

Trade Idea: AMD
AMD has moved lower with semiconductors after the MU report. Premarket low 75.05 can be used for a momentum short trigger or look for a bounce that fails VWAP.  AMD > 75.77 negates the idea and a potential bounce is playable to the long side.