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Swing Trade Idea – August 5, 2022

Market Setup: Pre FOMC

Note: Non-farm payroll was stronger than expected. Impact: US$ higher, bonds lower, equities lower, commodities lower.  Caution advised if SPY < 407. 

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower and flatter

•US$ -.27% EUR +.34% JPY -.03% AUD +.58%

•News: USA:  UE claims, Job cuts  830ET, China:  Europe: GB Bailey speaking

•Stocks: BABA  +4% EPS beat (China stocks rally) FTNT -8.5% lower guidance (security stocks lower) DDOG -9% lower guidance W -7.5% EPS miss; LCID -13% sales miss lower guidance QRVO -3.8% lower guidance ALB +5% large guidance increase GBT +30% buyout MELI +11% beat

•General: Leading: China internet, XBI, GDX, GLD, MSOS Lagging:  Bitcoin, software, ARKK

•Indices: USA markets consolidating premarket. SPY below 415 gamma level with support 413, 410, 406.5,405, and resistance  415  QQQ below 325 gamma level with 321, 320, 318, 315 support and 325 resistance.  In the last 2 days the GS most shorted stock basket is +10%, could it continue today?  Maybe, but bitcoin lower might be indicating that it’s slowing.

•Stocks to watch:  BABA  ALB COP TSLA GLD KGC FTNT DDOG LLY Spec Names GETY BCRX AMTD

Pre-800ET

Earnings CFLT RUN ALB MGM COP TS ET CI LCID FTNT CLX DDOG BALL PARA QRVO LUMN LLY CCEP APO

Indices KWEB MSOS GDX GLD XBI EEM SOXX ICLN XLE euro /btc IGV HACK

S&P500 ALB COP CI MGM NRG TSLA NEM RCL FTNT CLX NLSN BALL QRVO LUMN PARA LLY EXPE

IWM BCRX LNTH AMC RUN LAUR CI JELD LTHM YETI SHAK SIGA PDCE CROX MSTR DAN FRO

WSB AMC BABA TSLA NIO AFRM CCJ AMZN F COIN NET RIVN HOOD

Trade Idea: AAPL
AAPL is a proxy for QQQ and S&P500.  Post- FOMC AAPL can trade with a straddle approach. Short below 164.2 with target 162 and potentially 160.  Long above 166.65 but intraday opportunity on bounces after decline