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Swing Trade Idea – August 19, 2022

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ +.47% EUR -.4% JPY -.75% GBP -.78%

•News: Europe: German PPI +5.3% vs 0.7%  GBP retail sales .3% vs -0.2%

•Stocks: BBBY -41%; FL +21% beat, Hired CEO; AMAT +1% beat & raise; GCT +51% new IPO BILL +17% beat

•General: Leading: China Staples Healthcare Lagging: bitcoin,  spec tech, semis, energy

•Indices: Markets positioned risk-off with US$ strong and global bonds and equities lower. Major options expiration today with an AM and PM settlement. 25% of index and 40% of single stock options expiring leading to high volatility today and likely higher next week. Market maker support lower for next 2 weeks increasing potential for larger downside moves.  SPY support 420, 415,  and resistance  425, 430  QQQ below 330 gamma level  with  325, 320 support and 330, 332 resistance.  Names that have been bid up with high call buying are most susceptible and are clustered in the tech space. SPX 4200 is expected to hold an failure can lead to a larger down move. Short cover after down move can lead to pops.

•Stocks to watch: FL BILL AMD   TSLA  AAPL  NVDA   Spec Names MNMD +12% AXSM +34% HUT -12%

Pre-800ET

Earnings AMAT BILL DE FL ROST

Indices KWEB  XLP XLV        /btc ARKK TAN EWZ SOXX XLE XBI XOP IWM

S&P500 DVA DE HPQ RCL CCL MRO META PYPL SLB AAL MRNA CAT ENPH OXY CTRA ETSY APA MU SEDG VLO

IWM AXSM  BBBY GME MSTR AMC SI VERU BTU PLUG SIGA BCRX APPS GT LTHM AR FRO

WSB BBBY GME MSTR COIN HOOD AMC UPST AFRM NET PLUG RIVN NVDA TSLA F

Trade Idea: TSLA
TSLA is in play with large options expiration today and stock split next week. Straddle approach: long over 900 and short < 888. Expected move +/-15.