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Swing Trade Idea – September 01, 2022

Market Setup- Pre 8am

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ +.40% EUR -.43% CAD -.30%

•News: USA: UE claims 830ET, ISM PMI , construction spending 10ET Europe: German retail sales 1.9% vs -1.1% German MFG PMI  49.1 vs 49.8 China: Caixin PMI 49.5 vs 50.1

•Stocks: PSTG S SIG NTNX positive earnings move; OKTA MDB CIEN HRL CPB SMTC AI negative earnings move; NVDA AMD US govt special licensing req for AI chip export to China – negative for semi;  RIO buying TRQ;

•General: Leading: Financials Brazil Lagging: China Internet, Gold

•Indices: US indices fell post close and consolidating premarket. Broad global weakness with strong US$ and higher yields prime cause. Indices are negative gamma and prone to fall further  SPY resistance 400, 395 support 400.  QQQ  295 support 300 305  resistance. VIX 27 implies 1.6% daily move. Indices are negative gamma which can lead to much larger moves. Macro setup is not positive with US$ and yields higher but lower oil prices positive. Indices “oversold” and negative gamma is a setup for a strong short squeeze but break of SPX < 3900 could cause a waterfall.

•Stocks to watch  GOOGL TSLA  NVDA AMD OKTA MDB  Spec Names: NTNX SIG

Pre-800ET

Earnings PSTG S NTNX OKTA MDB CIEN HRL CPB SIG SMTC AI

Indices XLF EWZ XBI XLV KWEB SOXX SMH GDX ICLN EFA TLT XLE XLK

S&P500 COP SPG HRL NVDA CPB FCX AMD STX WDC MU CDNS LRCX DVN AMAT TAP KLAC

IWM SIG SMTC AI SIGA LTHM AA NTLA GME CLF X PLUG CRK FOLD

WSB NVDA AMD NIO GME CLF CCJ PLUG NET BABA TSLA

Trade Idea: NVDA
NVDA is in play on news that USA govt is going to prevent export to China of it’s most advance chips.  Straddle approach can be utilized with long over 145.5 with target 150  and shorts < 142 with target 140. Below 140 target is 133.