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Swing Trade Idea – October 04, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Negative – Neutral

Market Setup- Pre 830ET 

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•US$ -.5% EUR +.76% YEN -.1% GBP +.26%

•News: USA: JOLTS 10ET; Williams, Mester premarket; Jefferson 1145 Europe: Lagarde 11ET Oil: OPEC+ potential 1Mbpd cut

•Stocks:  RIVN +7.5% Deliveries on track; POSH +13% acquired by Korean firm; Foxconn cautiously optimistic on Q4 AAPL;  GILD JPM upgrade; AYI EPS beat

•General: Leading: Spec Tech, European, Semis, China Internet Lagging:

•Indices: USA indices are strong as US$ falls and yields fall. The meme is FED will be less hawkish due to weakening economic data. JOLTS data today at 10ET is important as FED is watching the jobs market. SPY 372  is above 370 gamma level with 375 target above and support. SPY is above the weekly expected move so now stretched with pullback risk; however clear signs of short squeeze VIX 28  implies a 1.6% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today.  Markets are in negative gamma which can lead to larger than expected moves. Equal odds of a short squeeze to 275 or a pullback today depending on the JOLTS data

•Stocks to watch  TSLA AMD AAPL ASML ABB CF SLV Spec Names RIVN PLTK VIR

Pre-800ET

Earnings AYI

Indices ARKK FEZ ICLN SOXX EFA SMH LIT KWEB XRT /btc XLK XLB IWM

S&P500 TSLA LIN AMD ILMN MU GILD NCLH ETSY SEDG NVDA AMAT AMZN BK PYPL DPZ F PENN DVN

IWM PLUG APPS GME SI FATE BEAM ABR RUN BE CROX PENN AA CLF BCRX MSTR

WSB RIVN AFRM PLUG NET COIN TSLA GME AMD NVDA AMZN NIO

Trade Idea: ARKK
Straddle idea.  Long over 39.6 and short below 38.73. The market is positioned for a short squeeze but stretched and ripe for a pullback should JOLTS data be strong at 10ET