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Swing Trade Idea – October 24, 2022

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre 830ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –Neutral/bullish global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields lower

•US$ +.24% EUR -.19% YEN -1.1% GBP +0.27%

•News: USA: Services/MFG PMI 9:45ET Yellen 11ET UK: Sunak likely PM Europe: Weak PMI Japan: Likely currency intervention China: XI continues are leader, GDP 3.9% vs 3.3% Retail sales 2.5% vs 3.1%

•Stocks:  PDD -16% China stocks down massively on XI election and no deviation from policy; TSLA -2% Price cuts in China; WOLF +5.8% upgrade; CAR +4.4% upgrade; ABBV +1.5% FDA approved Rinvoq

•General: Leading: bitcoin, IWM, XLK, TLT, healthcare, semis, staples  Lagging:  China, Gold Miners

•Indices: USA indices bouncing since 4ET driven by yields and currencies. Friday’s recovery was catalyzed by a narrative that FED is raising 75bps but then potentially slowing and increases in Yen attributed to intervention by Japan MOF.  Indices short term extended and pullback possible. SPY 375.8  is above 375 major gamma levels with 378, and 380 resistance above and support at 372.5, 375, and 370 gamma levels. VIX 29.45  implies a 1.9% daily move. VIX futures are inverted which is a warning flag today. Volatility tends to increase in the week post opex. Friday was a short squeeze which may continue if SPY can remain above 372.5. Watch TSLA, AMZN, and MSFT today.

•Stocks to watch NOW ABBV RTX MSFT AAPL  BABA TSLA FCX QRVO  Spec Names ENPH WOLF DNA

Pre-800ET

Earnings

Indices /btc IWM XLK TLT XLV DIA SPY SOXX XLP faangmt XBI QQQ XLP KWEB EEM LIT GDX GLD EFA XME

S&P500 NOW PXD ABBV AMZN RTX MO MSFT TWTR NCLH LVS WYNN TSLA QRVO SO FCX FDX

IWM FRO CAR RCM CCRN ALLO AR

WSB COIN AMZN PLUG RTX BABA NIO TSLA

Trade Idea: RTX
RTX is rallying in sympathy with LMT earnings. Defense stocks are benefiting from large USA spend for Ukraine.  The premarket high 90.3 is overbought and one can look for a dip >= 88.5 for a long with a stop at 87.